Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Metlifecare Limited (NZSE:MET) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
What Is Metlifecare's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2018 Metlifecare had NZ$254.3m of debt, an increase on NZ$141.3m, over one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
A Look At Metlifecare's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Metlifecare had liabilities of NZ$32.8m due within 12 months and liabilities of NZ$1.90b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of NZ$2.36m and NZ$31.5m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by NZ$1.90b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the NZ$921.3m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Metlifecare would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Metlifecare shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (18.7), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 2.2 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. Even more troubling is the fact that Metlifecare actually let its EBIT decrease by 4.8% over the last year. If that earnings trend continues the company will face an uphill battle to pay off its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Metlifecare's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Metlifecare actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
On the face of it, Metlifecare's net debt to EBITDA left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. It's also worth noting that Metlifecare is in the Healthcare industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Metlifecare has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. In light of our reservations about the company's balance sheet, it seems sensible to check if insiders have been selling shares recently.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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