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Can MGP (MGPI) Keep the Earnings Surprise Streak Alive?

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Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering MGP (MGPI), which belongs to the Zacks Food - Miscellaneous industry.

When looking at the last two reports, this producer of distillery and ingredients products used by the packaged goods industry has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 51.99%, on average, in the last two quarters.

For the most recent quarter, MGP was expected to post earnings of $0.96 per share, but it reported $1.69 per share instead, representing a surprise of 76.04%. For the previous quarter, the consensus estimate was $0.68 per share, while it actually produced $0.87 per share, a surprise of 27.94%.

Price and EPS Surprise

With this earnings history in mind, recent estimates have been moving higher for MGP. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the company is positive, which is a great sign of an earnings beat, especially when you combine this metric with its nice Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time. In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

MGP has an Earnings ESP of +8.37% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's next earnings report is expected to be released on August 4, 2022.

Investors should note, however, that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss, but a negative value does reduce the predictive power of this metric.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.


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