Last week we learned that economic growth remained well below par in the second quarter. We saw that consumer confidence could be stalling below normal readings. A report on home prices showed that the housing bubble may be re-inflating as home ownership falls to a 17.5-year low. The payroll data for July was weaker than expected and the unemployment rate fell to 7.4% only because more discouraged workers stopped looking for a job. The economy is creating more part time jobs and the number of part time workers rose to 28 million.
Stock market bulls call this mix positive as the FOMC pledged to keep the federal funds rate at 0% with the continued QE purchases at $85 billion per month.
The ValuEngine valuation warning continues with 76.8% of all stocks overvalued including 44.6% by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are overvalued, 14 by double-digit percentages with 10 by more than 20%.
Market technicals remain positive but some weekly charts are becoming overbought. Since there are no signals calling for a market top, new highs continue. This was the case last week with new all-time highs set on Thursday for Dow transports at 6686.86 and on the Russell 2000 at 1060.96. On Friday the Dow industrial average set a new all time high at 15,658.43, as did the S&P 500 at 1709.67. The Nasdaq set a multi-year high on Friday at 3689.59.
This sets the stage for Tuesday's premarket earnings reports. Among the eight stocks, three have buy ratings, three have hold ratings and two have sell ratings. Only one stock is undervalued, and three are overvalued by more than 20%. All had significant price gains over the last 12 months by 23.5% to 73.8%. Only one stock is below its 200-day simple moving average. The risk of a reversion to the mean is thus a risk for seven.
Here is my table of data for the eight stocks reporting results on Tuesday premarket.
Reading the Table
OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.
VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.
Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.
Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.
Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.
Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.
Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.
Archer Daniels ($37.57) set a multi-year high at $37.57 on Aug. 2 and now has a sell rating according to ValuEngine. My semiannual value level is $33.38 with a monthly pivot at $38.75 and annual risky level is $39.17.
CVS Caremark ($61.84) set a multi-year high at $62.36 on July 23. This buy rated stock has a quarterly value level at $58.42 with a weekly pivot at $61.65 and monthly risky level at $64.95.
Dish Networks ($45.22) set a multi-year high at $46.89 on July 18 then dipped to $42.85 on July 30. My semiannual value level is $43.28 with a weekly risky level at $47.31.
Fossil ($114.32) set its 2013 high at $115.19 back on Feb. 12 then had its 2013 low at $89.50 on April 5. This buy rated stock has a weekly value level at $111.34 with a monthly risky level at $119.22.
Michael Kors ($68.80) set a multi-year high at $69.23 on Aug. 2. My weekly value level is $64.72 with a monthly pivot at $66.78.
Louisiana Pac ($16.76) set a multi-year high at $22.55 on March 21 then traded as low as $14.51 on June 26. My weekly value level is $16.01 with a monthly pivot at $17.73 and semiannual risky level at $17.94. The 200-day SMA is at $18.46.
Molson Coors ($50.79) set a multi-year high at $53.35 on May 17 then traded as low as $46.94 on June 24. This buy rated stock has a semiannual value level at $47.92 with a weekly pivot at $48.66 and monthly risky level at $54.12.
Tidewater ($60.85) set its 2013 high at $62.38 on July 23 and subsequently was downgraded to sell according to ValuEngine. My annual value level is $59.59 with a monthly pivot at $60.51 and annual risky level at $63.31.
At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.