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Can Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:MSBI) Survive The Next Financial Crisis?

Simply Wall St

Midland States Bancorp, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MSBI) profitability and risk are largely affected by the underlying economic growth for the region it operates in US given it is a small-cap stock with a market capitalisation of US$646m. Given that banks operate by reinvesting deposits in the form of loans, negative economic growth may lower the level of saving deposits and demand for loans, directly affecting those banks’ levels of cash flows. Post-GFC recovery brought about a new set of reforms, Basel III, which was created to improve regulation, supervision and risk management in the financial services industry. Basel III target banking regulations to improve the sector’s ability to absorb shocks resulting from economic stress which may expose financial institutions like Midland States Bancorp to vulnerabilities. Unpredictable macro events such as political instability could weaken its financial position which is why it is important to understand how well the bank manages its risk levels. High liquidity and low leverage could position Midland States Bancorp favourably at the face of macro headwinds. A way to measure this risk is to look at three leverage and liquidity metrics which I will take you through today.

View our latest analysis for Midland States Bancorp

NasdaqGS:MSBI Historical Debt, April 15th 2019

Why Does MSBI's Leverage Matter?

A low level of leverage subjects a bank to less risk and enhances its ability to pay back its debtors. Leverage can be thought of as the amount of assets a bank owns relative to its shareholders’ funds. While financial companies will always have some leverage for a sufficient capital buffer, Midland States Bancorp’s leverage ratio of 9.26x is very safe and substantially below the maximum limit of 20x. This means the bank has a sensibly high level of equity compared to the level of debt it has taken on to maintain operations which places it in a strong position to pay back its debt in unforeseen circumstances. Should the bank need to increase its debt levels to meet capital requirements, it will have abundant headroom to do so.

How Should We Measure MSBI's Liquidity?

Handing Money Transparent

As above-mentioned, loans are quite illiquid so it is important to understand how much of these loans make up Midland States Bancorp’s total assets. Generally, they should make up less than 70% of total assets, but its current level of 73% means the bank has lent out 3.02% above the sensible upper limit. This means its revenue is reliant on these specific assets which means the bank is also more likely to be exposed to default compared to its competitors with less loans.

What is MSBI's Liquidity Discrepancy?

Banks profit by lending out its customers’ deposits as loans and charge an interest on the principle. These loans tend to be fixed term which means they cannot be readily realized, yet customer deposits on the liability side must be paid on-demand and in short notice. This mismatch between illiquid loans and liquid deposits poses a risk for the bank if unusual events occur and requires it to immediately repay its depositors. Relative to the prudent industry loan to deposit level of 90%, Midland States Bancorp’s ratio of over 101% is higher, which positions the bank in a risky spot given the adverse liquidity disparity between loan and deposit levels. Basically, for $1 of deposits with the bank, it lends out over $1 which is imprudent.

Next Steps:

Today, we've only explored one aspect of Midland States Bancorp. However, as a potential stock investment, there are many more fundamentals you need to consider. I've put together three important aspects you should further examine:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for MSBI’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for MSBI’s outlook.
  2. Valuation: What is MSBI worth today? Has the future growth potential already been factored into the price? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether MSBI is currently mispriced by the market.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: Are there other stocks that provide better prospects with proven track records? Explore our free list of these great stocks here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.