It would seem, on the market’s race to Dow (^DJI) 20,000, that we’ve hit a little speed bump. It’s not so much “if” we will hit that psychological and magical level, it’s more “when.” But what does it really mean?
For traders here on the floor, it’s a significant benchmark in the Dow—one that will be celebrated with loud yells, confetti-like paper flying around, and high fives! After this three-minute celebration, it will be back to trading, and 20,000 will be in the history books.
Talk will start to focus on Dow 25,000, then 30,000. Yesterday, I heard someone talking about Dow 50,000 by the end of Trump’s eight-year presidency (eight years?!). What traders are truly preoccupied with is the market trend. There is a saying down here on the floor, “The trend is your friend,” and right now the trend is very friendly. The latest bullish sentiment out of the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) shows bullish sentiment at 44.7% vs. bearish sentiment at 32.3%. However, bearish sentiment is starting to move, up +5.8% since the last read.
Government data out this morning showed the final read on third-quarter GDP at 3.5%, up from the initial read of 3.2%. Initial jobless claims came in at 275,000 versus 256,000. That’s still below 300,000 for the 94th straight week (Any number below 300,000 indicates a healthy economy.).
Tax cuts are coming
According to rumors out of Washington, D.C., this morning, the Democrats will work with the incoming Trump administration to get tax cuts pushed though Congress as early as this summer. This trend in the markets could last for some time and may indeed have legs to run higher. We still should expect minor setback corrections of 3%-8%, which would not be surprising.
As we head into a new year, it is important especially for millennial investors to stick to a long-term financial investment plan for the future. It was 44 years ago that I was throwing confetti up in the air as the Dow broke 1,000. This was a period of wild fluctuations in the market—one that saw the crash of 1987, the dot-com bust, 9/11, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and a host of other minor and major setbacks.
But still, here we are on the doorstep of 20,000. Though 40 years seems like a long time (and it is), believe me, it goes fast. It’s never too early to start planning for Dow 50,000 and maybe the Trump second inaugural.