Welcome to the MLB GPP Pivots article, where we’ll be looking to uncover some sneaky-good DFS plays away from the popular lifts. These recommendations are usually risk/reward commodities meant to be used in large-field tournaments. Typically, blending these low-owned hidden gems with well-aligned staples contributes to a viable GPP strategy.
Keep in mind that the following player write-ups were constructed earlier in the day, and sometimes injury/rest situations can alter the fantasy landscape. Monitoring our MLB News & Headlines Feed throughout the day will keep you in the loop while giving you the subsequent DFS consequences of each information piece.
We will be looking at the eight-game main slate starting at 7:05 ET.
Frankie Montas – Oakland (vs. Seattle)
I like Montas as a tournament pivot as well as a viable bargain pitcher who checks in at a discount compared to high-end options like Walker Buehler and Jake Odorizzi. He actually stacks up as a similar option to those names despite the salary discrepancy. Montas is a -210 home favorite against Seattle tonight. The Mariners hit plenty of homers, but they also hold the fifth-highest strikeout rate at 25%. Montas is a good enough pitcher to keep the ball in the fences, and his pitcher-friendly home ballpark could help in that regard.
Ronald Guzman – Texas (at Cincinnati)
If you frequent this column, then you already know the deal with Guzman. He’s a cheap first baseman with power upside and a typically low ownership rate while hitting down in Texas’ order without much name recognition. While Guzman went 0-5 yesterday, a breakout opportunity emerges while facing Cincinnati RHP Tanner Roark and his .352 wOBA split to left-handed bats. Great American Ball Park is very friendly to left-handed power, feeding the rationale for Guzman (and his teammates) even more.
Jurickson Profar – Oakland (vs. Seattle)
Profar is known as a contact-oriented utility player who doesn’t carry much upside on a day-to-day basis. However, the Oakland infielder occasionally stumbles upon upside with multiple hits, runs, and RBIs. I’m seriously considering an A’s stack tonight while facing “bulk pitcher” Wade LeBlanc and his .346 wOBA split to right-handed bats. LeBlanc has been better over his last two starts, but he has severe blow-up potential that could surface against an Oakland offense that feasts on left-handed pitching.
Todd Frazier – NY Mets (vs. St. Louis)
St. Louis RHP Michael Wacha returned to the rotation with six scoreless innings at Miami on Monday. Let’s not read into that, as the Marlins are easily one of the worst hitting teams in the league. Wacha has been shaky this season while allowing 12 earned runs and 14 hits through eight innings in three appearances prior to Monday’s redemption. He carries a .361 wOBA split to right-handed bats, which is something Frazier and company could use to cash in. Frazier is labeled as somewhat of a boom-or-bust option, but he’s reasonably priced while finding his homerun swing with four round-trippers over the past two weeks.
Amed Rosario – NY Mets (vs. St. Louis)
Rosario is a cheap shortstop who feeds on the same rationale utilized in Frazier’s write-up above. I’m not sold on Cardinals’ RHP Wacha, and Rosario is in an excellent spot to take advantage of that .361 wOBA split to right-handed bats. The Mets’ shortstop has a little bit of “pop” in his bat with eight homers this season, which is difficult to find when rummaging through the bargain bin of that position.
Austin Riley – Atlanta (vs. Philadelphia)
Atlanta’s farm system keeps proving itself over and over. Their latest success story comes from rookie Austin Riley, who is hitting .295 with 10 homers and 30 RBIs through 28 games this season. Consequently, his daily fantasy price tag is in the same range as more established outfielders like Nelson Cruz, Khris Davis, Bryce Harper, and Charlie Blackmon. Because of that, I’m assuming Riley will hold a low ownership rate, and stepping into a perceived difficult matchup against Philadelphia RHP Aaron Nola will drive that percentage down even more. However, Nola has been full of blemishes this season with an overall 4.58 ERA inflated by nine earned runs (12 hits) allowed through 12 innings over his past two starts.
Franmil Reyes – San Diego (at Colorado)
First off, you’ll need to confirm that Reyes is in the lineup tonight. If so, I believe he’ll hold a lower-than-deserved ownership rate. There’s a chance he’ll be overshadowed by his teammates, as Hunter Renfroe is coming off a three-homer performance at Coors Field yesterday. On top of that, fellow outfielder Wil Myers has been reasonably good in this series as well. However, let’s not forget about Reyes and his 19 homers this season. Colorado RHP German Marquez has been generous lately after allowing 12 earned runs through 11.1 innings over his last two starts. He has now given up four or more earned runs in six of his last nine appearances.