Moderna MRNA will report second-quarter 2022 results on Aug 3, before the market closes. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 65.54%.
Moderna’s shares have plunged 35.4% so far this year compared with the industry’s decline of 21.6%.
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The company’s surprise history has been mixed so far, with earnings beating estimates in three of the trailing four quarters while missing the same once. The average surprise is 18.48%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Factors to Note
Moderna’s sales during the quarter are likely to have been driven by the continued demand for its COVID-19 vaccine and booster doses across the globe. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for product sales during the second quarter stands at $4.25 billion.
In the second quarter, Moderna received emergency use authorization (“EUA”) from the FDA for itsCOVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, as a primary two-dose regimen in individuals aged six months and above.
This expanded authorization is likely to have generated additional sales of its COVID-19 vaccine during the second quarter. Moderna also received FDA authorization for using a second booster dose of its COVID-19 vaccine in March 2022.
Moderna has several advance purchase agreements for its COVID-19 vaccine with multiple countries for 2022 worth $19 billion along with options for delivering potential updated COVID-19 vaccine booster candidates aggregating $3 billion.
Moderna’s grant revenues in the second quarter are likely to have been driven by an award from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (“BARDA”) under the agreement to develop its coronavirus vaccine programs. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for grant revenues is pegged at $56 million.
Moderna has been developing several variant-specific booster doses of its COVID-19 vaccine, some targeting a specific virus strain like Omicron while some are targeting a couple of strains. Last month, MRNA announced new clinical data on its bivalent COVID-19 vaccine booster candidate mRNA-1273.214, which was developed to target the Omicron variant.
The new clinical data showed that study participants who received a 50 µg dose of mRNA-1273.214 (irrespective of prior infection or age), generated higher neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5, following a month-long administration compared with those who received a booster dose of Moderna’s currently marketed COVID-19 vaccine (mRNA-1273). The company has also started the development of mRNA-1273.222, a new bivalent candidate targeting the Omicron variant, specifically for the U.S. market.
Investors are likely to focus on updates, specifically regulatory updates, related to its variant-specific booster doses during the second-quarter earnings call.
Apart from its COVID-19 vaccine candidates, Moderna is developing 29 candidates in different stages of clinical studies, majorly mRNA-based products targeting different indications, including cancer.
During the second quarter, Moderna accelerated the development of its influenza vaccine program. While the company started dosing adult participants in a pivotal late-stage study evaluating mRNA-1010, its mRNA-based flu vaccine, it also started a phase I/II study evaluating two seasonal influenza vaccines, mRNA-1020 and mRNA-1030, targeting hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, two major surface glycoproteins that help the influenza virus to infect. These developments are likely to have increased its operating expenses during the second quarter.
The company is also developing a few pipeline candidates in collaboration with partners like AstraZeneca AZN and Merck, which use its mRNA technology to develop therapies targeting different indications. The partners pay milestone payments to Moderna, which are reflected as collaboration revenues. These collaboration revenues vary every quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for collaboration revenues for the second quarter is pegged at $16.89 million.
Moderna and AstraZeneca are evaluating different candidates in early- to mid-stage studies targeting oncology and cardiovascular indications. The leading candidate being developed in partnership with AstraZeneca is AZD8601 as a treatment for ischemic heart disease.
Moderna and Merck have been developing a personalized cancer vaccine for recurrence-free survival for a year. Merck has been conducting a phase II study evaluating the cancer vaccine in combination with Keytruda targeting various oncology indications.
Moderna may discuss its progress with developing its RSV vaccine candidate and cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine candidate, which are in late-stage studies, as well as other key candidates on its earnings call.
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Moderna this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Moderna has an Earnings ESP of -0.22% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.49 per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.50.
Zacks Rank: Moderna has a Zacks Rank #3, currently.
Moderna, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Moderna, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Moderna, Inc. Quote
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks worth considering from the overall heathcare space, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
ADC Therapeutics ADCT has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the last reported quarter, ADC Therapeutics’ earnings beat estimates and reported a positive earnings surprise of 52.63%.
ADC Therapeutics’ performance has been pretty encouraging to date, with its earnings exceeding expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 40.91%. Shares of ADCT have plunged 63.3% this year so far.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals IONS has an Earnings ESP of +27.61% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals’ stock has risen 23.4% this year so far. IONS’ earnings topped estimates in two of the last four quarters and missed the mark on the other two occasions. IONS has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 24.35%, on average.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals is scheduled to release second-quarter 2022 results on Aug 9.
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