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Moody's - Coronavirus will narrow economic disparities between Chinese provinces in the near term

·23 mins read

<!DOCTYPE html> <html lang="" xml:lang=""> <head> <title>/nwsys/www/images/PBC_1242592</title> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8"/> <meta name="generator" content="pdftohtml 0.36"/> <meta name="date" content="2020-08-26T23:05:31+00:00"/> <style type="text/css"> <!-- .xflip { -moz-transform: scaleX(-1); -webkit-transform: scaleX(-1); -o-transform: scaleX(-1); transform: scaleX(-1); filter: fliph; } .yflip { -moz-transform: scaleY(-1); -webkit-transform: scaleY(-1); -o-transform: scaleY(-1); transform: scaleY(-1); filter: flipv; } .xyflip { -moz-transform: scaleX(-1) scaleY(-1); -webkit-transform: scaleX(-1) scaleY(-1); -o-transform: scaleX(-1) scaleY(-1); transform: scaleX(-1) scaleY(-1); filter: fliph + flipv; } --> </style> </head> <body bgcolor="#A0A0A0" vlink="blue" link="blue"> <!-- Page 1 --> <style type="text/css"> <!-- p {margin: 0; padding: 0;} .ft00{font-size:18px;font-family:Times;color:#000000;} .ft01{font-size:18px;font-family:Times;color:#1257c7;} .ft02{font-size:13px;font-family:Times;color:#0d0c0c;} .ft03{font-size:13px;font-family:Times;color:#000000;} .ft04{font-size:13px;font-family:Times;color:#1b62b7;} .ft05{font-size:13px;line-height:30px;font-family:Times;color:#0d0c0c;} --> </style> <div id="page1-div" style="position:relative;width:918px;height:1188px;"> <img width="918" height="1188" src="http://mco.acquiremedia.com/images/PBC_1242592001.png" alt="background image"/> <p style="position:absolute;top:155px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00"><b>Research Announcement:&#160;</b></p> <p style="position:absolute;top:155px;left:364px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01"><b>Moody's - Coronavirus will narrow economic</b></p> <p style="position:absolute;top:180px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01"><b>disparities between Chinese provinces in the near term</b></p> <p style="position:absolute;top:216px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">London, August 27, 2020 --</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:246px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft03">»&#160;Stronger coastal provinces will be more severely impacted than weaker remote ones in the near</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:266px;left:127px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft03">term</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:296px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft03">»&#160;But provinces’ underlying credit strengths will drive recovery, causing disparities to re-emerge</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:316px;left:127px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft03">over time</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:351px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Moody’s Investors Service says in a new report that the magnitude of China’s (A1 stable) growth</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:371px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft05">slowdown will vary across provinces, narrowing regional economic disparities in the near term.<br/>“Our analysis suggests that provinces that implemented the most restrictive control measures, as</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:421px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">well as those with high exposures to exports and privately owned enterprises, are likely to record</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:440px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft05">greater growth declines in 2020,” says Yubin Fu, a Moody’s Assistant Vice President and Analyst.<br/>Some economically strong coastal provinces, such as Zhejiang, Guangdong and Shanghai, will be</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:490px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">hit harder compared to the remote and weaker ones, narrowing economic disparities between the</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:509px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft05">inland and coastal regions.<br/>However, over the longer term, stronger provinces’ underlying credit strengths will drive recovery,</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:559px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft05">widening economic disparities again as they recover faster.<br/>Moody’s expects a correlation between economic resilience and credit strength, with provinces in the</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:609px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">west and northeast of China, such as Yunnan, Guizhou and Liaoning, facing greater challenges in</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:628px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">restoring sustained growth, as their weaker fiscal and debt positions constrain their ability to absorb</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:648px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft05">shocks.<br/>Conversely, provinces with stronger credit profiles are supported by more diverse economies and</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:698px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft05">stronger finances, giving them greater resilience against shocks and facilitating a faster recovery.<br/>While Moody’s expects China’s GDP growth to return to above 7.0% in 2021 from 1.9% in 2020,</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:748px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">risks remain tilted to the downside. If the economic shock is more severe and longer-lasting, regional</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:767px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">and local governments will face pressure on their finances to maintain employment and social</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:787px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft05">stability. The provinces most at risk include Qinghai, Shanxi, Yunnan and Gansu.<br/>Subscribers can access the report “Regional &amp; Local Governments - China: Coronavirus has</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:836px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">varied effects across provinces; regional economic disparities to narrow in the near term” at:&#160;</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:836px;left:752px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04">http://</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:856px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04">www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1222458</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:886px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:906px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">press information hotlines: New York <PhoneNo>+1-212-553-0376</PhoneNo>, London <PhoneNo>+44-20-7772-5456</PhoneNo>, Tokyo</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:925px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02"><PhoneNo>+813-5408-4110</PhoneNo>, Hong Kong <PhoneNo>+852-3758-1350</PhoneNo>, Sydney <PhoneNo>+61-2-9270-8141</PhoneNo>, Mexico City</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:945px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02"><PhoneNo>001-888-779-5833</PhoneNo>, São Paulo <PhoneNo>0800-891-2518</PhoneNo>, or Buenos Aires <PhoneNo>0800-666-3506</PhoneNo>. You can also email</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:964px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft05">us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.<br/>This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:1014px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on&#160;</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:1014px;left:574px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04">www.moodys.com</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:1014px;left:701px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">&#160;for the most</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:1033px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">updated credit rating action information and rating history.</p> </div> <!-- Page 2 --> <style type="text/css"> <!-- p {margin: 0; padding: 0;} .ft06{font-size:13px;line-height:23px;font-family:Times;color:#0d0c0c;} --> </style> <div id="page2-div" style="position:relative;width:918px;height:1188px;"> <img width="918" height="1188" src="http://mco.acquiremedia.com/images/PBC_1242592002.png" alt="background image"/> <p style="position:absolute;top:114px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Jennifer A. Wong, CFA</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:133px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">VP-Sr Credit Officer</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:153px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Sub-Sovereign Group</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:172px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Moody's Investors Service Ltd.</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:211px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft05">Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454<br/>Yubin Fu</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:261px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">AVP-Analyst</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:280px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Sub-Sovereign Group</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:300px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">MIS Beijing Shanghai Branch</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:319px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:339px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft05">Client Service: 852 3551 3077<br/>Releasing Office:</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:389px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Moody's Investors Service Ltd.</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:408px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">One Canada Square</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:428px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Canary Wharf</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:447px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">London, E14 5FA</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:467px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">United Kingdom</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:486px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:506px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:595px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">© 2020 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:615px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). 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However, MOODY’S is not an auditor and cannot</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:651px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:670px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">preparing its Publications.<br/>To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents,</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:713px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect,</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:732px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:752px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information, even if</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:771px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:791px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages, including but not limited to:</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:810px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">(a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:830px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODY’S.<br/>To the extent permitted by law, MOODY’S and its directors, officers, employees, agents,</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:872px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:892px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:911px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt,</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:931px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of,</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:950px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">MOODY’S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers,</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:970px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:989px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">any such information.<br/>NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS,</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:1032px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF</p> </div> <!-- Page 4 --> <style type="text/css"> <!-- p {margin: 0; padding: 0;}--> </style> <div id="page4-div" style="position:relative;width:918px;height:1188px;"> <img width="918" height="1188" src="http://mco.acquiremedia.com/images/PBC_1242592004.png" alt="background image"/> <p style="position:absolute;top:114px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">ANY CREDIT RATING, ASSESSMENT, OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:133px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">BY MOODY’S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.<br/>Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:176px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:195px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:215px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to Moody’s</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:234px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Investors Service, Inc. for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:254px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">$1,000 to approximately $2,700,000. MCO and Moody’s Investors Service also maintain policies</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:273px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">and procedures to address the independence of Moody’s Investors Service credit ratings and credit</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:293px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:312px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">and rated entities, and between entities who hold credit ratings from Moody’s Investors Service and</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:332px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:351px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">annually at&#160;</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:351px;left:188px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04">www.moodys.com</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:351px;left:315px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">&#160;under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance —</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:371px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”<br/>Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:413px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s Investors Service Pty Limited</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:433px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:452px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intended to be provided only to “wholesale</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:472px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:491px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:511px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:530px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:550px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:569px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:589px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">any form of security that is available to retail investors.<br/>Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:631px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’s Overseas Holdings Inc.,</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:651px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:670px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">(“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:709px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:729px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:748px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:768px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.<br/>MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:810px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:830px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:849px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:869px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY250,000,000.<br/>MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory</p> <p style="position:absolute;top:911px;left:108px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft02">requirements.</p> </div> </body> </html>