Moog Inc. (NYSE:MOG.A) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 5.3% to hit US$755m. Moog reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$1.44, which was a notable 18% above what analysts had forecast. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the four analysts covering Moog are now predicting revenues of US$3.04b in 2020. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.2% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to increase 2.9% to US$5.53. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.53 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
Analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$101, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Moog analyst has a price target of US$110 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$90.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or that analysts have a clear view on its prospects.
It can be useful to take a broader overview by seeing how analyst forecasts compare, both to the Moog's past performance and to peers in the same market. It's pretty clear that analysts expect Moog's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 2.2%, compared to a historical growth rate of 3.0% over the past five years. By way of comparison, other companies in this market with analyst coverage, are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that analysts still expect Moog to grow slower than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from these results is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Moog's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Moog. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Moog going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also view our analysis of Moog's balance sheet, and whether we think Moog is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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