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Mortgages, autos, factory data on tap

Bryan McCormick (bryan.mccormick@optionmonster.com)

The economic calendar is heavy today, and tomorrow will be equally busy before earnings season begins next week.
Motor Vehicle Sales has no specific timetable for each company that reports. Typically the reports begin after the open and end by noon eastern. The aggregate report comes later in the afternoon. Stocks such as Ford, General Motors, Honda, and Toyota will be active before and after each company reports its results.

At 7 a.m. ET, the weekly MBA Purchase Applications data will be released. I focus only on the purchases component of this mortgage report because it indicates new economic activity, as opposed to refinancing.

Economists do not make estimates for this release, which came in at 181.6 last month. A purchases number that is higher than that reading by 5 percent or more would likely be seen as bullish, while one that falls below by the same margin would be bearish.

At 7:45 a.m. ET, the weekly ICSC/Goldman Store Sales report will be released. There are two parts to this release, the week-over-week and year-over-year comparisons. Most traders focus on the year-over-year number because it better reflects the longer-term trend.

The last week-over-week reading came in at 0.9 percent, while the year-over-year data showed a gain of 4.5 percent. Stronger-than-expected positive numbers would be seen as bullish, while negative numbers would be bearish.

The weekly Redbook Store Sales will be reported at 8:55 a.m. ET. As with the ICSC-Goldman report, there are two components to watch. One is the more volatile month-over-month change, and the other is the year-over-year reading, which shows the broader trend best.

The last month-over-month change was -2.4 percent, while the year-over-year data showed a gain of 4.3 percent. Negative numbers in either series would be bearish.

Factory Orders will come out at 10 a.m. ET. The consensus forecast calls for a rise of 1.7 percent from last month. Estimates range from a bearish 0.2 percent to a bullish 2.8 percent.

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