The Mosaic Company MOS is set to release third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 7, after the closing bell.
The fertilizer maker delivered a negative earnings surprise of around 5.9%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. The company’s third-quarter results are likely to reflect the benefits of higher prices and demand for phosphate and potash.
Shares of Mosaic have gained 25.8% in the past year compared with 25.4% rise of the industry.
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Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
What do the Estimates Indicate?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic’s third-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $6,010 million, calling for an increase of 75.8% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Phosphates segment is currently pegged at $1,630 million, suggesting an increase of 27.2% year over year.
Moreover, the consensus mark for net sales in the Potash segment is currently pegged at $1,393 million, indicating an increase of 136.5% year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment is currently pegged at $3,132 million, which calls for an increase of 78.5% year over year.
Factors at Play
Mosaic is likely to have benefited from higher demand for phosphate and potash in the September quarter. Higher agricultural commodity prices and attractive farm economics are driving demand for fertilizers globally. Global phosphate markets remain robust on solid demand and low producer and channel inventories.
Demand for grains and oilseeds remains high along with strong farm economics. Strong demand, low inventories and supply disruptions have also fueled rapid price increases for fertilizers in the United States and globally.
Mosaic is also likely to have benefited from actions to reduce costs amid a still-challenging operating environment. Its actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are expected to have boosted its profitability. Transformational savings are also likely to have supported margins in the quarter to be reported.
However, it is likely to have faced headwinds due to an uptick in key raw material prices. Prices of sulfur and ammonia remain elevated, made worse by the uncertainties over the supply from Russia amid the war. Plant shutdowns and maintenance have also led to a tight supply of raw materials, which, coupled with strong demand, has ramped up their prices. As such, the company is expected to have faced margin pressure associated higher input costs.
The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise
The Mosaic Company price-eps-surprise | The Mosaic Company Quote
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Mosaic is +2.54%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at $3.52. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Mosaic currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider, as our model shows these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:
Maverix Metals Inc. MMX, expected to release earnings on Nov 15, has an Earnings ESP of +7.14%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Maverix Metals’ third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 2 cents. MMX currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
MAG Silver Corp. MAG, expected to release earnings on Nov 21, has an Earnings ESP of +18.18%.
The consensus estimate for MAG Silver's third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 11 cents. MAG currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Perpetua Resources Corp. PPTA, expected to release earnings on Nov 11, has an Earnings ESP of +50.00%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Perpetua Resources' earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at a loss of 8 cents. PPTA currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.
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The Mosaic Company (MOS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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