Long term investing can be life changing when you buy and hold the truly great businesses. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. For example, the Napco Security Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSSC) share price is up a whopping 440% in the last half decade, a handsome return for long term holders. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. It's also good to see the share price up 28% over the last quarter.
In light of the stock dropping 5.9% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over half a decade, Napco Security Technologies managed to grow its earnings per share at 29% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 40% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth. This optimism is visible in its fairly high P/E ratio of 52.65.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
A Different Perspective
It's nice to see that Napco Security Technologies shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 31% over the last year. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 40% a year, is even better. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Napco Security Technologies has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
We will like Napco Security Technologies better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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