It's the last week of February and here's what you need to know:
Did you hear the Nasdaq is near 5000? Apparently it's news to USA Today, Barron's, the Wall Street Journal and a slew of other media outlets who apparently don't read my stuff regularly. Welcome to the party, main stream media and lesser pundits.
You'll hear a lot about the Greek deal driving this push higher. That's just silly. There are many details that further complicate the agreement. Specifically, it doesn't get ratified until the beginning of May and the whole process starts all over again at the end of June. That gives us a blissful two months of not hearing about Greece starting in about mid-April. If you want to trade off that kind of thing it's all you.
We're less than 1% away from 5000 on the Nasdaq. It's been 15 years. Had CNBC existed in 1954 I'm quite certain they would have covered the moment the Dow recovered its losses from the 1929 crash quite extensively.
As for what's driving this move it comes down largely to animal spirits. That blood lust is hard to quantify but a deal struck last on Friday isn't. In a fight that comes at least five years too late Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather will box on May 2. While nothing has been confirmed, the rumored purse split is along the lines of $200 million split 60/40 for Mayweather. That seems like a preposterous amount until you put it in the context of the broadcasting world and the explosion in rights fees for sports.
Heaven and earth had to be moved to get this fight done. Apparently Les Moonves, CEO of CBS (CBS), which owns Showtime, and top HBO execs had to personally finalize the contracts. Why would the Hatfields and McCoys of cable do such a thing? Because if the fight takes in anywhere near the expected $300 million worth of PPV buys HBO and Showtime get to split about $30 million just for broadcasting a fight.
Who else wins? How about the MGM Grand (MGM). When word of the fight leaked out on Friday the hotel immediately tripled its room rates for the weekend. The prices went higher from there. As of this morning a king sized room at the MGM costs $181 the weekend of April 24th and $1,050 for the next weekend when the fight is held. Nice. Or look at flights. First class flights between NYC and Las Vegas went up over 60% the instant this event was announced.
Finally consider Comcast (CMCSA). They report tomorrow morning and this deal couldn't come at a better time. See, Comcast is hoping to buy Time Warner Cable (TWC). Together those two companies own 63% of the broadband cable households in the country. The cable companies get about 45% of the revenues from PPV boxing matches traditionally. That's about $92 million in projected revenues just from this one night. What better way to point out that cord-cutting or not, cable still matters.
Yes the blood lust and greed is in the air and it's not just Nasdaq 5000 emitting the pheromones. It's a bull market. This is what they look like. Try not to over think it and keep on eye on Comcast and Nasdaq 5000 this week.
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