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Nate Silver: Pelosi Fundraising Email ‘Straight-up Misinformation,’ Democrats Not Favored in Key Senate Races

·2 min read

FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver accused House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of spreading “straight-up misinformation” in a recent fundraising email in which she falsely claimed that the site’s models favored Democrats in several key Senate races.

“Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight just announced that Democrats are poised to win SIX Senate seats this November,” Pelosi wrote, incorrectly stating that the site is predicting that Democrats will win the upcoming contests in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

“This is straight-up misinformation,” Silver said of the email. “We have Democrats as heavy underdogs in Florida and Ohio.”

FiveThirtyEight‘s model gives Republicans a 90 percent chance of holding on to retiring incumbent Rob Portman’s seat in Ohio, and a 94 percent chance of victory in Florida, where Marco Rubio is running for a third term.

FiveThirtyEight has designated races in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada as tossups. Of the races mentioned by Pelosi, only New Hampshire is listed as “lean Democrat.”

The email comes after Democrats were criticized for aggressive fundraising emails last week, including one in which Pelosi suggested that “if I don’t reach 1,387 more gifts before midnight to close the budget gap, it will be the single most devastating setback for Democrats’ chances of winning this election and protecting women’s reproductive freedoms nationwide.”

Democrats are likely to lose control of the House in November — FiveThirtyEight predicts Republicans have an 87 percent chance of taking back the majority — but Pelosi and others in the party has argued that the overturning of Roe v. Wade will ensure that progressive voters turn out.

However, just 8 percent of likely swing state voters say abortion is a top issue for them going into the midterms, according to a new Cygnal poll commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee.

Meanwhile, 37 percent of respondents said that the high cost of living and inflation are their top concern, according to the poll, which was conducted on June 25 and 26 among likely general election voters in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin.

The poll also did not show a shift in support toward Democrats; Republican state legislative candidates lead on the generic ballot 47 percent to 45 percent. A similar poll conducted in January found that Republican state legislative candidates led Democratic candidates 48 percent to 42 percent.

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