U.S. markets open in 2 hours 39 minutes
  • S&P Futures

    4,299.25
    -18.50 (-0.43%)
     
  • Dow Futures

    33,868.00
    -175.00 (-0.51%)
     
  • Nasdaq Futures

    13,969.25
    -17.50 (-0.13%)
     
  • Russell 2000 Futures

    1,905.50
    -22.80 (-1.18%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    87.09
    +0.48 (+0.55%)
     
  • Gold

    1,784.50
    -10.50 (-0.58%)
     
  • Silver

    22.43
    -0.24 (-1.06%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1135
    -0.0012 (-0.11%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    1.8070
    0.0000 (0.00%)
     
  • Vix

    31.01
    -0.95 (-2.97%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.3392
    +0.0010 (+0.08%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    115.6000
    +0.2980 (+0.26%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    36,482.32
    -193.50 (-0.53%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    826.14
    +6.64 (+0.81%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,465.22
    -89.09 (-1.18%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    26,717.34
    +547.04 (+2.09%)
     

National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) shareholders have earned a 53% return over the last year

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·3 min read
In this article:
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • NAB.AX
  • NABHA.AX
  • NABPC.AX
  • NABPD.AX
  • NABPE.AX
  • NABPF.AX
  • NABPH.AX

Passive investing in index funds can generate returns that roughly match the overall market. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. To wit, the National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) share price is 48% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 22% (not including dividends) in the same period. If it can keep that out-performance up over the long term, investors will do very well! However, the stock hasn't done so well in the longer term, with the stock only up 16% in three years.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

See our latest analysis for National Australia Bank

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the last year National Australia Bank grew its earnings per share (EPS) by 1.7%. The share price gain of 48% certainly outpaced the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is now more optimistic about the stock.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
earnings-per-share-growth

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of National Australia Bank, it has a TSR of 53% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that National Australia Bank shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 53% over one year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 6%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with National Australia Bank .

But note: National Australia Bank may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.