Two important questions to ask before you buy National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ) is, how it makes money and how it spends its cash. After investment, what’s left over is what belongs to you, the investor. This also determines how much the stock is worth. I will take you through FIZZ’s cash flow health and the risk-return concept based on the stock’s cash flow yield, using the most recent financial data. This will help you think about the company from a cash perspective, which is a crucial factor to investing.
Is National Beverage generating enough cash?
Free cash flow (FCF) is the amount of cash National Beverage has left after it pays off its expenses, including its net capital expenditures, which is what the company needs to spend each year to maintain or grow its business operations.
The two ways to assess whether National Beverage’s FCF is sufficient, is to compare the FCF yield to the market index yield, as well as determine whether the top-line operating cash flows will continue to grow.
Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flows – Net Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow Yield = Free Cash Flow / Enterprise Value
where Enterprise Value = Market Capitalisation + Net Debt
Along with a positive operating cash flow, National Beverage also generates a positive free cash flow. However, the yield of 2.66% is not sufficient to compensate for the level of risk investors are taking on. This is because National Beverage’s yield is well-below the market yield, in addition to serving higher risk compared to the well-diversified market index.
Is National Beverage’s yield sustainable?
Does FIZZ’s future look brighter in terms of its ability to generate higher operating cash flows? This can be estimated by examining the trend of the company’s operating cash flow moving forward. Over the next few years, the company is expected to grow its cash from operations at a double-digit rate of 38%, ramping up from its current levels of US$159m to US$219m in two years’ time. Although this seems impressive, breaking down into year-on-year growth rates, FIZZ’s operating cash flow growth is expected to decline from a rate of 18% next year, to 17% in the following year. But the overall future outlook seems buoyant if FIZZ can maintain its levels of capital expenditure as well.
Although its positive operating cash flow, and high future growth, is appealing, the low free cash flow yield is unattractive. This is because you would be better compensated in terms of cash yield, by investing in the market index, as well as take on lower diversification risk. However, cash is only one aspect of investing. Keep in mind that cash is only one aspect of investment analysis and there are other important fundamentals to assess. I suggest you continue to research National Beverage to get a more holistic view of the company by looking at:
- Valuation: What is FIZZ worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether FIZZ is currently mispriced by the market.
- Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on National Beverage’s board and the CEO’s back ground.
- Other High-Performing Stocks: If you believe you should cushion your portfolio with something less risky, scroll through our free list of these great stocks here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org.