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National Retail Properties, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 20%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

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Simply Wall St
·4 min read
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National Retail Properties, Inc. (NYSE:NNN) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$159m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 20%, coming in at just US$0.30 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for National Retail Properties


Following last week's earnings report, National Retail Properties' five analysts are forecasting 2021 revenues to be US$675.1m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 19% to US$1.54. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$680.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.57 in 2021. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$39.83, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic National Retail Properties analyst has a price target of US$45.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$31.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 0.8% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 7.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.0% next year. It's pretty clear that National Retail Properties' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for National Retail Properties. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$39.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for National Retail Properties going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with National Retail Properties , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.