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Is National Retail Properties, Inc.'s (NYSE:NNN) Stock On A Downtrend As A Result Of Its Poor Financials?

·4 min read

National Retail Properties (NYSE:NNN) has had a rough three months with its share price down 7.5%. We decided to study the company's financials to determine if the downtrend will continue as the long-term performance of a company usually dictates market outcomes. Particularly, we will be paying attention to National Retail Properties' ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

Check out our latest analysis for National Retail Properties

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for National Retail Properties is:

7.4% = US$290m ÷ US$3.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. That means that for every $1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated $0.07 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of National Retail Properties' Earnings Growth And 7.4% ROE

On the face of it, National Retail Properties' ROE is not much to talk about. However, its ROE is similar to the industry average of 6.6%, so we won't completely dismiss the company. Still, National Retail Properties has seen a flat net income growth over the past five years. Bear in mind, the company's ROE is not very high. So that could also be one of the reasons behind the company's flat growth in earnings.

We then compared National Retail Properties' net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 8.8% in the same period, which is a bit concerning.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if National Retail Properties is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is National Retail Properties Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

National Retail Properties seems to be paying out most of its income as dividends judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 71%, meaning that the company retains only 29% of its profits. However, this is typical for REITs as they are often required by law to distribute most of their earnings. Accordingly, this suggests that the company's earnings growth was miniscule as a result of the high payout.

In addition, National Retail Properties has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 68%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 8.0%.

Summary

On the whole, National Retail Properties' performance is quite a big let-down. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.