It's been a good week for National Storage Affiliates Trust (NYSE:NSA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 3.8% to US$37.53. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$383m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.15 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for National Storage Affiliates Trust from four analysts is for revenues of US$418.5m in 2020, which is a decent 9.3% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. National Storage Affiliates Trust is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.43 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$423.2m and US$0.75 per share in losses. Although we saw no serious change to revenue forecasts, analysts have definitely increased their earnings estimates, estimating a profit next year, instead of previous forecasts of a loss. So it seems like the consensus has become substantially more bullish on National Storage Affiliates Trust.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$35.78, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values National Storage Affiliates Trust at US$41.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$30.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
It can be useful to take a broader overview by seeing how analyst forecasts compare, both to the National Storage Affiliates Trust's past performance and to peers in the same market. It's pretty clear that analysts expect National Storage Affiliates Trust's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 9.3%, compared to a historical growth rate of 27% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the market with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.9% next year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that analysts still thinkNational Storage Affiliates Trust will grow faster than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away from these updates is that analysts now expect National Storage Affiliates Trust to become profitable next year, compared to previous expectations that it would report a loss. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data does suggest that National Storage Affiliates Trust's revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have forecasts for National Storage Affiliates Trust going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of National Storage Affiliates Trust's balance sheet, and whether we think National Storage Affiliates Trust is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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