Natural gas markets initially fell a bit during the week, breaking down below the $1.80 level before turning around and rallying to show signs of life again. The $1.80 level is an area that has been supportive in the past, but we also have broken down to the $1.60 level previously, so I don’t think this is the be-all and end-all of support. If the market was to rally a bit from here, I would anticipate some type of exhaustion coming into play near the $2.00 level, and therefore it’s likely that rallies will give you an opportunity to start selling again.
NATGAS Video 17.02.20
Remember, the oversupply of natural gas will continue to be a major issue and the market is most certainly been in a downtrend. Furthermore, even if we did break above the $2.00 level the market will more than likely find a ton of resistance at the $2.20 level. Exhaustion is probably the best way to describe the trade you are looking for, as the markets will continue to deal with a lack of demand as temperatures are warmer than anticipated in the northeastern part of the United States right along with a slew of fracking. The market is likely to see a rush of bankruptcies because of the low pricing of commodities. Ultimately, this is a market that should continue to drift a bit lower after rallies, but we are still overstretched at this point I think that you are probably best to simply wait for an opportunity to sell from higher levels instead of trying to break it down here.
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This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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