NBA DFS Bargains: Thursday
Every NBA DFS lineup needs to draw from the bottom of the player well to balance those stars who spend through the DraftKings or FanDuel salary cap with such ease. Bargain players are ideally those with low salaries, but plenty of upside. Opportunity is often the key to success for our low-cost lineup fillers.
Thursday’s six-game slate should not disappoint. The headline game features the Warriors’ No. 1 offense vs. Indiana’s top three ranked defense. The Warriors are double-digit favorites at home. Sacramento is a big home favorite over Dallas in a fantasy friendly game with a 229 point total, while Denver is a big road favorite in Washington, another potentially high scoring game (228.5 point total).
Expect big pace bumps and the fantasy boost that comes with them for Utah, Detroit, Indiana, Dallas, and Denver players. In addition, Dallas, Denver, Utah, Detroit and Minnesota all get top 10 overall fantasy matchups tonight, while Washington, Golden State, Atlanta, and Phoenix all face teams ranking in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed. I’m prioritizing spending on a top center – one of Nikola Jokic, Andre Drummond or Karl-Anthony Towns – thanks to their awesome positional matchups tonight. That means we’ll look for value elsewhere.
Cory Joseph – PG – Indiana (FD: $4400, DK: $3900)
If Collision is out, I’d be happy to save some salary with Joseph tonight. Though he’s been averaging about 20 fantasy points in the last two games, a lot of it is coming from seven steals in that span. His scoring is a bit of a concern, but it’s fairly balanced by his price and his ability to contribute in several categories. The fact that the Warriors play at a fast pace and are somewhat turnover-prone helps his case as well. Note that Tyreke Evans (FD: $4600, DK: $3500) also stepped up big Tuesday night in Collison’s absence and will probably have much lower ownership in tournaments.
Josh Okogie – SG/SF – Minnesota (FD: $4300, DK: $3900)
We might get one more chance at cheap Okogie as the Timberwolves are set to be very shorthanded again tonight. Okogie has seemingly found a rhythm in the last two games, averaging 20 real points with enough peripherals to net him 33 and 34 fantasy points. Charlotte is the second-best fantasy matchup for opposing shooting guards, making Okogie a near must-play at his current salary.
Wayne Ellington – SG – Detroit (FD: $4300, DK: $4000)
Starting and playing a lot of minutes (25-32 MPG in the last four games), Ellington is a wild card. He hit seven three’s last game in a favorable matchup with Cleveland, and gets one of the best wing matchups with the Suns tonight. He’s got nice upside for the price, but is certainly a riskier option.
Jeff Green – PF – Washington (FD: $4600, DK: $4300)
Ariza left Wednesday’s game with a groin injury. If he is ruled out tonight, Green would enter into a solid opportunity. As is, Green has been averaging almost 20 fantasy points in 20-30 MPG over the last couple weeks. Also of note, Bobby Portis played 37 minutes last night and may be a candidate to see fewer minutes tonight which would also help Green’s usage potential. The Nuggets are a good defensive team, but do allow the ninth-most fantasy points to PFs.
Miles Bridges – SF – Charlotte (FD: $3800, DK: $3300)
It’s nice when you can take advantage of a birthday narrative (his 21st) backed by some stats and situational advantages. Bridges is coming off one of his best games this season, 8 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals vs. Philadelphia Tuesday night. He gets to take advantage of a Timberwolves team that is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season, ranking 24th overall in defensive efficiency but playing at a slightly faster pace than the Hornets. Also encouraging, his 29 minutes Tuesday night came in a close game.
Reggie Jackson – PG – Detroit (FD: $5500, DK: $5100)
Closer to the mid-range in value, I wanted to point out that Jackson does seem a little cheap for this matchup with Phoenix. They’re the third-most generous team for fantasy overall, and rank eighth vs. PG specifically. Jackson had a 19-point, 8-assist, 2-rebound, 2-steal game against them earlier this season and should be productive against them tonight.