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What you need to know in markets Tuesday

Heidi Chung

It was a nasty day for the stock market on Monday.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell below its 200-day moving average and closed down 1.97%, or 54.78 points as of market close. The Dow (^DJI) plunged 2.32%, or 602.12 points, as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Apple (AAPL) were the biggest losers in the index. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) sunk 2.78%, or 206.03 points and has been stuck in a correction since October 24.

Crude oil (CL=F) continued to capture the attention of investors and Wall Street alike. After OPEC and other producers said over the weekend that they would cut output next year, oil prices attempted to snap a 10-day losing streak and opened the session higher. However, the commodity took a leg lower midday and continued to decline after President Trump tweeted, “Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!” Oil has now closed lower for 11 straight sessions, its longest streak ever.

According to Capital Economics, plummeting crude oil prices could impact inflation. “The recent slump in crude oil and gasoline prices means that headline CPI inflation could fall well below 2% for most of next year. But, given that lower prices would also provide a small boost to real GDP growth, the temporary inflation undershoot won’t stop the Fed from continuing to raise interest rates.” October’s CPI data will be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Traders work on the floor at the closing bell of the Dow Industrial Average at the New York Stock Exchange on November 7, 2018 in New York. (Photo by Bryan R. Smith / AFP) (Photo credit should read BRYAN R. SMITH/AFP/Getty Images)

Economic calendar

Home Depot (HD) will kick off retail earnings this week with its quarterly earnings report before the bell on Tuesday. Weed company Tilray (TLRY) will report after the market close.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg are expecting earnings of $2.26 per share on $26.24 billion of revenue for Home Depot and a loss of 11 cents per share on $10.11 million of revenue for Tilray.

Investors can expect the NFIB small business optimism data for October Tuesday morning. Economists are expecting to continue the positive historic trend with a reading of 108.0 in October, up from 107.9 in September. September’s reading was the third largest reading in the survey’s 45-year history, according to the NFIB.

Now, here’s what caught Yahoo Finance’s markets correspondent Myles Udland’s eye

In the third quarter, investors had no patience for earnings misses.

In a note to clients published last Friday, Goldman Sachs’ equity strategy chief David Kostin affirmed a theme that had been burgeoning at the outset third quarter earnings season six weeks ago and which came to pass in spades as results rolled in — companies that missed expectations got hammered. Especially when it came to revenue misses.

“Investors rewarded relatively scarce sales beats and harshly punished both sales and EPS misses,” Kostin wrote. “Only 31% of S&P 500 firms reported a sales beat (vs. 35% historically). A stronger trade-weighted US dollar (+3% vs. 3Q 2017) was one revenue headwind… Investors penalized firms more than usual when they missed on revenues (-224 bp underperformance vs -129 bp historically) and when they missed on EPS (-267 bp vs. -211 bp).”

Companies that got pounded by investors after reporting light sales in the third quarter included some of the market’s biggest leaders — Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Netflix (NFLX) all reported revenue that missed forecasts. Apple’s (AAPL) quarter reported lighter-than-expected iPhone sales and revenue guidance that was shy of estimates.

Shares of Amazon, Netflix, and Apple all fell more than 7% after their quarterly reports.

But the penal nature of the market during this earnings season should not be entirely surprising.

From the second week of October through last Friday’s close — which covers the period when the bulk of third quarter results were reported — the S&P 500 fell nearly 4%. October as a whole was worse, with the benchmark index dropping 7% for its worth monthly performance since 2011.

Stocks hit record highs just before the third quarter earnings period began, and with the benefits of tax cuts and the U.S. economy enjoying the fastest GDP growth in at least four years, the tailwinds for corporates were obvious. Expectations may have been lofty, but given this backdrop investors having a low tolerance for missing estimates makes sense.

The market’s reaction to third quarter earnings does not, however, negate the fact that the reporting period overall was quite strong. With 90% of the S&P 500 having reported quarterly earnings through last Friday, Goldman notes that earnings per share growth for S&P 500 members has come in at 27% with revenues growing 12% over last year.

And even without the benefits of tax cuts, the third quarter was a strong one for corporate America — pretax earnings have growth 14% over last year through the first three quarters of the year.

The market’s reaction to third quarter earnings and the year’s broader trading action which has been punctuated by three sharp pullbacks makes us recall data highlighted by analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch back in February that said during years when S&P 500 earnings have grown by double-digits in half of the 29 years the benchmark index has declined over the last 90 years.

Which is a simple reminder that stock prices reflect expectations about future corporate performance, not mechanisms to reward the most recent quarterly report.

Heidi Chung is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @heidi_chung.

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