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Netflix shares jump as traders bet on another blowout earnings report after the bell

Lauren Thomas

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares jumped Monday ahead its first-quarter earnings release, as Wall Street became even more bullish on the much-anticipated report.

Shares closed up around 3 percent. Netflix reported an earnings beat after the bell on Monday.

The options market is now anticipating a 7.5 percent move in the stock in either direction on Tuesday, Dan Nathan, the co-founder of RiskReversal.com, told CNBC in an interview ahead of Netflix's earnings report. "That's about $5 billion in market cap" won or lost, he pointed out.

In 13 of the past 20 of Netflix's quarterly earnings reports, the stock has closed either up or down by 10 percent or more, according to FactSet data.

In January, Netflix shares surged as much as 9 percent in late trading after the company posted subscriber numbers that largely topped its own guidance, along with an earnings beat.

The company said it added 7.05 million subscribers — a metric analysts care about most — during the fiscal fourth quarter, the largest quarterly subscriber growth in the company's history. This was viewed as the biggest booster in the stock's movement after hours.

Analysts are now cautiously positive about Netflix.

MKM Partners analyst Rob Sanderson pointed out in a recent note to clients that Netflix's original content slate during the fourth quarter was relatively weak, including shows like "A Series of Unfortunate Events," stand-up comedy specials from Dave Chappelle and the critically panned "Iron Fist."

But there's still hope the second quarter will get a higher subscriber boost, just maybe not by the magnitude seen in the fourth quarter. Shows like "13 Reasons Why" released during the first quarter have been topping social media mentions, and fan favorites "House of Cards" and "Orange Is the New Black" are returning, Sanderson said.

Watch: Analyst talks caution ahead of Netflix earnings

— CNBC's Dominic Chu, Christine Wang and Michelle Castillo contributed to this report.



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