Neurocrine (NBIX) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. NBIX is scheduled to report third-quarter 2018 results on Nov 5, after market close.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 61.11%. However, Neurocrine’s track record is mixed as it has topped estimates in two of the last four quarters, the average positive earnings surprise being 4.88%.
Neurocrine’s shares have outperformed the industry so far this year. The stock has gained 37% against the industry’s decline of 8.1%.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors Likely to Impact Q3 Results
Neurocrine is focused on discovering, developing and commercializing innovative and life-changing pharmaceuticals in diseases with high unmet medical needs. The company, through its novel research and development (R&D) platform, is focused on neurological and endocrine related disorders.
Ingrezza (valbenazine) received FDA approval on Apr 11, 2017. It is the first medicine approved in the United States for the treatment of adults with tardive dyskinesia. It is also being investigated in Tourette syndrome and has been granted Orphan Drug Designation by the FDA for the same. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the company initiated T-Force GOLD, a phase IIb study of valbenazine in pediatric patients with Tourette syndrome. Top-line data are expected in late 2018.
In July, 2018, the FDA approved Orilissa (elagolix) for the management of moderate to severe endometriosis pain in women. It is the first FDA approved oral medication for the management of endometriosis with associated moderate to severe pain in over a decade. It is marketed by AbbVie Inc. ABBV as part of a collaboration to develop and commercialize elagolix for women’s health. In October 2018, the company along with partner AbbVie announced that Health Canada approved Orilissa, the first and only oral gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) receptor antagonist, for the treatment of moderate to severe pain associated with endometriosis. Orilissa is expected to be available in Canadian retail pharmacies in early November 2018.
The company’s pipeline candidates include opicapone, being developed as an adjunctive therapy to levodopa/DOPA decarboxylase inhibitors in Parkinson's disease patients, Orilissa (elagolix) for uterine fibroids with AbbVie, Ingrezza for the treatment of Tourette syndrome, and NBI-74788 for the treatment of congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH).
In August 2018, Neurocrine and AbbVie announced positive top-line results from the phase IIIELARIS UF-EXTEND extension study (MI2-816), which showed that, at month 12, elagolix (300 mg twice daily), in combination with low-dose hormone (add-back) therapy reduced heavy menstrual bleeding, with 87.9% of women with uterine fibroids achieving clinical response. Data from the study will support regulatory submission for elagolix in uterine fibroids, which is expected in 2019.
The company is in the process of preparing for a new drug application (NDA) for Opicapone in the first half of 2019.
The company is expected to provide updates on its pipeline candidates in the third quarter.
For 2018, Neurocrine expects operating expenses to fall within the previous guidance range of $395 million to $420 million.
What Does the Zacks Model Unveil?
Our proven model does not conclusively show an earnings beat for Neurocrine in the to-be-reported quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Neurocrine has an Earnings ESP of -0.42%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Neurocrine currently has a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive Earnings ESP to be confident of an earnings beat.
Note that Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into an earnings announcement are best avoided.
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. Quote
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some stocks you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
AMAG Pharmaceuticals Inc. AMAG is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Nov 1. The company has an Earnings ESP of +13.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. ALNY is expected to report third-quarter earnings on Nov 6. The company has an Earnings ESP of +12.54% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
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