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NewRiver REIT plc (LON:NRR) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 15% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been disappointing. In that time the share price has delivered a rude shock to holders, who find themselves down 74% after a long stretch. So is the recent increase sufficient to restore confidence in the stock? Not yet. But it could be that the fall was overdone.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
NewRiver REIT has made a profit in the past. On the other hand, it reported a trailing twelve months loss, suggesting it isn't reliably profitable. Other metrics may better explain the share price move.
We note that the dividend has fallen in the last five years, so that may have contributed to the share price decline.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think NewRiver REIT will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, NewRiver REIT's TSR for the last 5 years was -63%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
NewRiver REIT's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 15%. The silver lining is that the share price is up in the short term, which flies in the face of the annualised loss of 10% over the last five years. While 'turnarounds seldom turn' there are green shoots for NewRiver REIT. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand NewRiver REIT better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that NewRiver REIT is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
NewRiver REIT is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.