Celebrations may be in order for Qudian Inc. (NYSE:QD) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals. Investors have been pretty optimistic on Qudian too, with the stock up 17% to US$2.46 over the past week. We'll be curious to see if these new estimates convince the market to lift the stock price higher still.
Following the upgrade, the consensus from three analysts covering Qudian is for revenues of CN¥2.7b in 2021, implying a definite 14% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to soar 56% to CN¥5.91. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥2.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥4.43 in 2021. So we can see there's been a pretty clear increase in analyst sentiment in recent times, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. Over the past three years, revenues have declined around 15% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 18% decline in revenue until the end of 2021. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Qudian to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates for this year, expecting improving business conditions. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow slower than the wider market. With a serious upgrade to expectations, it might be time to take another look at Qudian.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Qudian going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here..
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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