Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ:AGEN) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals.
Following the upgrade, the consensus from three analysts covering Agenus is for revenues of US$82m in 2022, implying a concerning 73% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to balloon 954% to US$0.70 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$66m and losses of US$0.89 per share in 2022. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 93% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 42% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 15% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Agenus is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting Agenus is moving incrementally towards profitability. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow slower than the wider market. More bullish expectations could be a signal for investors to take a closer look at Agenus.
These earnings upgrades look like a sterling endorsement, but before diving in - you should know that we've spotted 4 potential flags with Agenus, including dilutive stock issuance over the past year. You can learn more, and discover the 3 other flags we've identified, for free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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