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NHC keeping eye on 2 tropical waves in Atlantic showing potential for development

As communities hit hard by Hurricane Ian continue to recover from the storm's wrath, the National Hurricane Center is watching two disturbances in the Atlantic.

A tropical wave off the coast of Africa — Invest 92L — shows the strongest potential for development and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two as it moves generally northwest into the central Atlantic.

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Excessive rainfall forecast

Closer to the U.S. is Invest 91L, a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean. A tropical depression could form by late this week or this weekend over the central or western Caribbean Sea. Most models are showing the system moving toward Central America.

Conditions can change rapidly and during hurricane season, all residents should stay informed and be prepared.

The next named storms of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will be Julia and Karl.

Tropical conditions 2 a.m. Oct. 4, 2022.
Tropical conditions 2 a.m. Oct. 4, 2022.

What's coming after Ian? Maps and charts show extent of Hurricane Ian's destructive path across Florida — and what you can expect next

Path of destruction: Annotated maps and video show before and after view of damage from Hurricane Ian

Live updates today: Hurricane death toll climbs to 78; almost 520,000 Florida power customers still in the dark: Live Ian updates.

Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 8 a.m. Oct. 4:

What's out there and where are they?

Spaghetti models for Invest 91L at 6 a.m. Oct. 4, 2022.
Spaghetti models for Invest 91L at 6 a.m. Oct. 4, 2022.

Invest 91L: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have increased a little this morning, but there are not yet any signs of significant organization.

Invest 92L: A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

How likely are they to strengthen?

Invest 91L: The wave is forecast to move westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.

Some slow development is possible while the wave continues westward, and a tropical depression could form by late this week or this weekend over the central or western Caribbean Sea.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days: medium, 40 percent.

Spaghetti models for Invest 92L at 6 a.m. Oct. 4, 2022.
Spaghetti models for Invest 92L at 6 a.m. Oct. 4, 2022.

Invest 92L: Environmental conditions are currently conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while moving northwestward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development by Wednesday and Thursday.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days: high, 80 percent.

Who is likely to be impacted?

It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves.  Residents in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands and the northern coast of Venezuela were advised to monitor the progress the tropical wave approaching the Caribbean.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA

Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Weather watches and warnings issued for your area

If you can't see any local weather warnings here, you'll need to open this story in a web browser.

Tropical forecast over next five days

See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

What's next?

We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look at our special subscription offers here. 

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropics watch: NHC shows 2 tropical waves strengthening in Atlantic