The idea of electric cars is not new. In fact, they date back to the 1880’s. Over the decades there have been several pushes to popularize them but most efforts had so far fizzled. That is until recently, where Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has made e-cars mainstream. And now other companies are joining the movement, including a Chinese manufacturer called Nio (NYSE:NIO). In spite of the popularity of e-cars, those who owned either TSLA or NIO stock this year are in a world of hurt.
The good news is that the global consensus now is that electric cars are here to stay. And that they are a credible threat to the internal combustion engine. While only time will tell, there is a noticeable adoption rate and it seems exponential. We all know at least one person with an electric vehicle or someone thinking about buying one. So the market is viable and that answers the biggest uncertainty in the bullish thesis.
Nio stock is struggling, but today’s point is that it may just be temporary. If I still own the shares this is not the time to give up on them. Furthermore, this could be a good time to bet on a reversal of fortune for the Nio stock price. The last tactical trade that I was eyeing late July failed to materialize.
The company got its biggest exposure in the U.S. last year when the TV show 60 Minutes aired a special on it. Consequently Nio stock spiked to $10 per share, but once again, it failed to hold that level. Since then, the stock fell as much as 78% from that high to the low, and it is now slightly above that.
Nio Stock Needs Time to Heal
So now the bulls are left wondering how low can Nio stock go? Zero, is the answer, but that is true for any stock. So the more constructive question is: How high can the stock go? In other words, does Nio, the company, have a future in the electric car market?
Yes, it does.
So far, Nio seems to be doing as well as the rest of them. The easy way to illustrate this is to compare its stock price to that of Tesla. Over the last year they have moved in tandem. So this suggests that the stock is broken but the company’s prospects and fundamentals are not. And if that’s true, then all Nio stock really needs is time to heal.
But management could help the cause along by stemming the slide in sales trends. Unlike TSLA which is growing its unit sales, NIO’s monthly deliveries are going south. The next earnings report will be pivotal on that front.
Meanwhile, the benefit of having Nio stock fall so far from the high is that it’s so close to zero that it makes for a small risk with big potential reward. At $3 per share, it makes for an easy debt for the long-term. This is a stock that I would buy and forget about for years or until it spikes. If the e-car market flourishes, then Nio stock is likely to recover most of its past glory.
It is also important to note that based on the headlines, the Chinese car market in general is struggling. So this is further testament to the fact that this is not a Nio problem, but rather a industry-swoon. First, you have to consider the general Chinese car industry and, second, the electric car market.
This too shall pass. For those who still haven’t booked their losses in it, it’s perhaps too late to sell this low.
There’s not a lot to discern from the chart other than it looks like grim death. But Nio stock has been setting higher lows for almost two months. In addition it is also setting lower highs and that means the price range is tightening into a fine point. These usually result in big moves, but where it’s headed is unknown.
What makes this interesting is that this is the same area of the 12 months point-of-control. So from a bull/bear debate, this is where they like to fight it out the most and this creates congestion. So in theory, the bulls have an the advantage and they could break out from this descending wedge.
It is entirely possible for the Nio stock price to reach $4 sooner rather than later. There would be resistance there and at every past ledge. But those are also potential triggers for more upside.
While this write-up sounds bullish, it is imperative to remember that it’s up to the Nio bulls to prove that this company is worth it. So I consider this a highly speculative trade and one that has low odds of success. But the lower the odds, the bigger the potential the rewards. And at $3 per share, it’s a relatively small risk that is worth the effort.
Last week, the entire stock market took a beating on recession fears. So if this week the headlines cooperate, then Nio stock could start that bounce rally along with a rallying stock market.
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