It got real quiet on the floor just before Friday’s 7:30 CT release of the November jobs number and it got real noisy after. For the last six years the job market in the US has been front and center both on the minds of the population and the economy.
With the US poised to add the most jobs since the Great Recession it looks like the US is heading toward prosperity again, or is it? We have always said that Yankee ingenuity would prevail but while jobs may be getting more plentiful, getting 54 million people off food stamps may be another story.
Today the people of the United States live in a “new world” economic order where nothing stays the same. What used to work doesn’t and what does work is evolving. Some may argue the point but the Great American Shrinkdown is over.
The Asian markets closed mostly lower and in Europe 10 out of 12 markets are trading higher. This weeks economic calendar includes 14 T-bill and Bond announcements and auctions, 18 economic releases and 3 Fed governors speaking today.
Yes, the stronger November jobs report was a good sign. And yes, the average weekly paycheck increased slightly. So far 2.1 million jobs have been added in the first 11 months of 2013. Additionally it’s the third year in a row that the economy has added 2 million jobs.
As bad as some of the jobs numbers may have looked, 2013 is going to end up the best year for hiring since 2005, with a 7% unemployment rate.
All of the above is good news but not everyone has found a job. While the last three years have added over 6 million jobs, that is only two thirds of the nearly 9 million jobs that were lost in 2008-2009. Despite the good news the Economic Policy Institute http://www.epi.org/ calculates that the job shortfall is still 8 million.
It’s a complex issue and while there may have been job creation the overall economy still feels very shaky. The hiring has put more people back to work but the population of the US is still under a lot of stress. Premium gas in Chicago is still $4.04 a gallon. I know many family and friends who are still looking for work. With the US adult population growing by 13 million people over the last six years we think there is still a lot of work to do.
In general Mondays are the slowest trading day of the week and with no economic reports today and only Fed speak, traders will be paying attention to 11:30 and 11:50 when Jeffrey Lacker and James Bullard speak.
I don’t know how much you paid attention to Friday but 3 minutes before the jobs number was released I posted this on Twitter
MrTopStepDec 06, 7:27am via HootSuite #jobnuber MrTopStep looking for NFP to be inline to higher #buy stops
And a few minutes later I put this out
dboy———- (07:37:56): I feel a big ass rip coming on the upside..
As we have said many times, no little bird flew by and said the number was coming in higher and the E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 13 (ESZ13:CME) was going to rip 24 handles from its Globex low to its day high at 1806.00. For several days I have been showing you the net changes: Nov 15 +5.8, Nov 18 -4.8, Nov 19 -3.5, Nov 20 -5.5, Nov 21+14, Nov 22 +7.5, Nov 25 + 1.2, Nov 26 .40,Nov 27 +2.3,Nov 29 -.20, Dec 2 -4.4, Dec 4 +.40, Dec 5 -7.8, Dec6 +21. This is just over the last 14 days.
Why do you think I was doing that? It was to show you how narrow the decline was. Sure there were some downside attacks but they didn’t lead to anything other than what all the declines led to: another new all-time contract high.
Our view is that the S&P makes a new all-time contract high today. Later in the week. you can sell the midmorning rally and buy weakness or just buy weakness. The upside is not over yet..
As always don’t forget the 10 handle rule and please use stops…
- In Asia, 9 of 11 markets quoted closed higher: Shanghai Comp. +005%, Hang Seng +0.29%, Nikkei +2.29%
- In Europe7 of 12 markets are trading modestly lower: DAX +0.06%, FTSE -0.24%
- Morning headline: “Stock index futures hold near new high after upbeat jobs numbers”
- Total volume: ES 1.75 M, SP 10.7 K
- Economic calendar: 3 and 6 Month T-bill auction, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speech to economic outlook conference in Charlotte, North Carolina, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speech on the economy in St. Louis, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher speech on banking trends in Chicago, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher responds to questions on the economy in Chicago.
- E-mini S&P (Sep)1803.75+0.75 - +0.04%
- Crude97.80-1.42 - -1.43%
- Shanghai Composite0.00N/A - N/A
- Hang Seng23338.24-405.949 - -1.71%
- Nikkei 22515515.06-96.25 - -0.62%
- DAX9148.28+33.84 - +0.37%
- FTSE 1006549.06+25.75 - +0.39%