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November Makes Three Straight Months of Gains

Jim Giaquinto

November may have ended with a thud in this holiday-shortened session, but the month was stuffed tighter than yesterday’s turkey with new record highs as we reach the homestretch of 2019.    

The NASDAQ jumped 4.5% this month, while the Dow and S&P increased 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively.

The indices have now been up for three straight months!

October was a good time too… but not this good. The NASDAQ advanced 3.7% last month, with the S&P up 2% and the Dow higher by only 0.5%.

The big factor in November was optimism for the Phase 1 trade deal. The market moved forward on the good headlines and kept a lid on the selloffs during the bad ones.

However, one of the major stories we’ll be watching heading into December is China’s response to President Trump signing a bill in support of Hong Kong protestors.

Meanwhile, all signs point to a solid Black Friday, which suggests that consumers won’t be shy spending money this holiday shopping season and will continue to be the backbone of the strong U.S. economy.

On Friday, though, stocks were as sluggish as most folks after Thanksgiving dinner.

The NASDAQ dipped 0.46% (or nearly 40 points) to 8665.47. The S&P and Dow each slipped 0.40%, ending at 3140.98 and 28,051.41, respectively.

But the indices were back to weekly gains with the NASDAQ higher by 1.7% over the past three-and-a-half days. You probably remember that the index’s seven-week winning streak was snapped at the end of last Friday.

The S&P and Dow also saw their winning runs end last week, but got back on the right side with weekly advances of 1% and 0.6%, respectively.

So here we go into December! Despite the market’s run recently, investors can’t help but be haunted by last year’s massacre. And there are potential trouble spots on the horizon after supporting Hong Kong and with more tariffs set for the 15th.

However, we enter the month with the bulls still firmly in control, the consumers willing to spend, and hope for a trade deal. And then there’s always Santa!

Not a bad way to start December…

Today's Portfolio Highlights:

Counterstrike: "The last trading day of November is in the books, meaning the year is almost complete. Yes, only 21 days left to pad the year’s returns or “catch up” to the indices performance. Either way, I’m expecting a much calmer December than last year, which ruined many holidays for those that weren’t ready for the 2018 Q4 sell off.

"This has been a good year for most and I don’t expect the smart money to let the 20% plus returns to slip away. Some evidence of that is news out Thanksgiving Eve that Trump would sign the Hong Kong support bill.

"In theory, this is really bad for the trade deal and the impending tariffs that may come. While futures sold off on the headlines, they rallied back and we only saw moderate selling today. Perhaps we get more negative headlines on China/U.S. relations, but for now markets are not concerned."
-- Jeremy Mullin

See You in December!

Jim Giaquinto

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