It's been a good week for Novo Nordisk A/S (CPH:NOVO B) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 4.9% to ø433. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of ø122b and statutory earnings per share of ø16.38 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Novo Nordisk is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what analysts' statutory forecasts suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Novo Nordisk's 23 analysts is for revenues of ø129.8b in 2020, which would reflect an okay 6.4% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to grow 12% to ø18.34. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of ø127.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of ø18.61 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at ø409. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Novo Nordisk analyst has a price target of ø490 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ø223. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Zooming out to look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up both against past performance, and against industry growth estimates. Analysts are definitely expecting Novo Nordisk's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.4% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.8% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same market, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.8% next year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Novo Nordisk is expected to grow much faster than its market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with analysts reconfirming that earnings per share are expected to continue performing in line with their prior expectations. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with analysts still expecting the business to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Novo Nordisk. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Novo Nordisk analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Novo Nordisk Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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