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Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine On Deck Capital, Inc. (NYSE:ONDK)?

Simply Wall St

On Deck Capital, Inc. (NYSE:ONDK), which is in the diversified financial business, and is based in United States, received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NYSE over the last few months. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today I will analyse the most recent data on On Deck Capital’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for On Deck Capital

What's the opportunity in On Deck Capital?

According to my valuation model, On Deck Capital seems to be fairly priced at around 6.47% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy On Deck Capital today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that the stock is really worth $3.76, there’s only an insignificant downside when the price falls to its real value. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that On Deck Capital’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

What does the future of On Deck Capital look like?

NYSE:ONDK Past and Future Earnings, December 10th 2019

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of On Deck Capital, it is expected to deliver a negative earnings growth of -16%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? Currently, ONDK appears to be trading around its fair value, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on ONDK for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. Furthermore, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on ONDK should the price fluctuate below its true value.

Price is just the tip of the iceberg. Dig deeper into what truly matters – the fundamentals – before you make a decision on On Deck Capital. You can find everything you need to know about On Deck Capital in the latest infographic research report. If you are no longer interested in On Deck Capital, you can use our free platform to see my list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.