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Some Numis (LON:NUM) Shareholders Are Down 31%

Simply Wall St

Passive investing in an index fund is a good way to ensure your own returns roughly match the overall market. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in Numis Corporation Plc (LON:NUM) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 31%. That contrasts poorly with the market return of 7.3%. On the other hand, the stock is actually up 31% over three years. The silver lining is that the stock is up 7.3% in about a week.

View our latest analysis for Numis

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Unfortunately Numis reported an EPS drop of 8.5% for the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 31% share price fall. This suggests the EPS fall has made some shareholders are more nervous about the business. The P/E ratio of 10.59 also points to the negative market sentiment.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

AIM:NUM Past and Future Earnings, April 17th 2019

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Numis's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Numis the TSR over the last year was -29%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Investors in Numis had a tough year, with a total loss of 29% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 7.3%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.6%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Before forming an opinion on Numis you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.