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NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Main Trend Down; .6269 Next Target

James Hyerczyk

The New Zealand Dollar is trading flat early Friday after hitting its lowest level since September 3. The light buying may be profit-taking ahead of the week-end or in front of the .6269 main bottom. There is nothing in the news to suggest a bottom is near. Everything points to lower prices since Thursday’s weak GDP report has put another rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) back on the table.

At 06:20 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6304, up 0.0004 or +0.07%.

The RBNZ is scheduled to review its official cash rate on September 24, although it won’t be producing a full monetary policy report until November 12. The markets don’t expect another rate cut until November at the last meeting for the year, but traders have to be ready for a surprise. Remember the unexpected 50-basis point rate cut in August? Exactly.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6269 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through .6445.

The minor trend is also down. Taking out .6362 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is .6269 to .6451. Its 50% level or pivot at .6360 is potential resistance today. B

The short-term range is .6269 to .6451. Its retracement zone at .6429 to .6466 is solid resistance. It stopped the rally last week at .6451.

Daily Technical Forecast

The nearest upside target and resistance is a long-term downtrending Gann angle at .6341. This angle has been guiding the NZD/USD lower since the .6791 main top on July 19.

The nearest downside target is the .6269 main bottom. If this fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the August 24, 2015 main bottom at .6207.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire