The New Zealand dollar fell during most of the session on Thursday, but found enough support just above the vital 0.68 handle to bounce and show signs of life. This is an area that’s been supportive in the past, so it makes sense that the buyers might be attracted. However, I still believe that it’s difficult to buy this market, least until we clear the 0.69 handle as it shows continuation of the buying pressure. If we were to roll over and break below the 0.68 handle, that would be a very negative sign for the New Zealand dollar, perhaps sending it down to the 0.65 level after that. Remember that this pair is highly correlated to the risk appetite of trading around the world, and right now it looks likely that the stock markets around the world are trying to roll over, which of course is a negative sign for risk appetite.
A break above the 0.69 level is bullish, but I still think that we won’t be able to get above the 0.70 level after that. Quite frankly, interest rates in the United States arising while New Zealand doesn’t look likely to do the same anytime soon. With this being the case, it’s likely that the volatility picks up, and the trading will be difficult to hang onto with large size unless of course we are to the downside as it has much more in the way of momentum. Markets continue to be very difficult to deal with, and it’s likely that the choppiness will be something that you have to deal with if you are willing to trade. Otherwise, you would be forgiven of course to sit on the sidelines as this type of volatility could be quite dangerous, especially as the New Zealand dollar isn’t as liquid as some of the other major currencies.
NZD/USD Video 17.11.17
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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