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October ADP Payrolls Rise +158,000... In a New and Better Survey

John Blank

Well, once again, our Muddle Through Economy plods along.  October ADP Payrolls rose +158,000, up from +114,000 in September and up from +82K in August.   The latest monthly gains fell in line with the average of +150,000 a month is Government Payroll Adds over the last two years. 

Be aware, on this November 1 ADP Payroll Report, a NEW methodology has been applied. 

  • Collaboration with Moody's Analytics allowed the ADP National Employment Report to increase the number of industry categories reported and expanded the number of business sizes reported each month.  
  • Other key enhancements of the report included the development of a new methodology to further align with the final, revised U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (:BLS) numbers.  A look back at historical data from 2001 to the present using the new methodology shows a very strong correlation (96%) with the revised BLS numbers.  
  • In addition, the overall sample size used to create the report has been increased from 344,000 U.S. companies to 406,000, and from 21 million employees to 23 million; which accounts for more than 20% of all U.S. private sector employees.  Originally launched in 2006, the ADP National Employment Report is a derived from actual payroll data from an anonymous subset of ADP’s clients.

​One of the data output features of the new report is the size of businesses can now be tracked.  Of the +158K, we learned 50K small business jobs were created, 27K medium business jobs, and 81K large business jobs.

As for industries, Professional and Business Services and Construction jobs led the way.

It looks likely to be a report that does not add much fuel to next week's Presidential election.  

What do you think?  Is this report going to turn the dial on the stock market or the election?


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