Ocuphire Pharma, Inc. Just Recorded A 42% Revenue Beat: Here's What Analysts Think

·3 min read

Ocuphire Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUP) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Performance was better than the analysts expected, with revenues of US$40m coming in42% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.87 exceeding forecasts by 18%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Ocuphire Pharma


Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering Ocuphire Pharma, is for revenues of US$19.9m in 2023, which would reflect a sizeable 50% reduction in Ocuphire Pharma's sales over the past 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$0.18 in 2023, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$19.9m and losses of US$0.21 per share in 2023. While the revenue estimates were largely unchanged, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a favorable reduction in losses per share in particular.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$22.50, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Ocuphire Pharma analyst has a price target of US$24.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$20.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 50% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 166% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.0% per year. It's pretty clear that Ocuphire Pharma's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Ocuphire Pharma's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ocuphire Pharma analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Ocuphire Pharma is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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