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One Factor To Consider Before Investing In dotDigital Group Plc (LON:DOTD)

If you are currently a shareholder in dotDigital Group Plc (LON:DOTD), or considering investing in the stock, you need to examine how the business generates cash, and how it is reinvested. This difference directly flows down to how much the stock is worth. Operating in the application software industry, DOTD is currently valued at UK£256m. I will take you through DOTD’s cash flow health and the risk-return concept based on the stock’s cash flow yield, using the most recent financial data. This will help you think about the company from a cash perspective, which is a crucial factor to investing.

View our latest analysis for dotDigital Group

What is free cash flow?

Free cash flow (FCF) is the amount of cash dotDigital Group has left after it pays off its expenses, including its net capital expenditures, which is what the company needs to spend each year to maintain or grow its business operations.

I will be analysing dotDigital Group’s FCF by looking at its FCF yield and its operating cash flow growth. The yield will tell us whether the stock is generating enough cash to compensate for the risk investors take on by holding a single stock, which I will compare to the market index. The growth will proxy for sustainability levels of this cash generation.

Free Cash Flow = Operating Cash Flows – Net Capital Expenditure

Free Cash Flow Yield = Free Cash Flow / Enterprise Value

where Enterprise Value = Market Capitalisation + Net Debt

dotDigital Group’s yield of 0.76% indicates its sub-standard capacity to generate cash, compared to the stock market index as a whole, accounting for the size differential. This means investors are taking on more concentrated risk on dotDigital Group but are not being adequately rewarded for doing so.

AIM:DOTD Net Worth November 6th 18

What’s the cash flow outlook for dotDigital Group?

Can DOTD improve its operating cash production in the future? Let’s take a quick look at the cash flow trend the company is expected to deliver over time. Over the next couple years, the company is expected to grow its cash from operations at a double-digit rate of 33%, ramping up from its current levels of UK£13m to UK£17m in three years’ time. Furthermore, breaking down growth into a year on year basis, DOTD is able to increase its growth rate each year, from -0.9% in the upcoming year, to 7.3% by the end of the third year. The overall future outlook seems buoyant if DOTD can maintain its levels of capital expenditure as well.

Next Steps:

Low free cash flow yield means you are not currently well-compensated for the risk you’re taking on by holding onto dotDigital Group relative to a well-diversified market index. However, the high growth in operating cash flow may change the tides in the future. Keep in mind that cash is only one aspect of investment analysis and there are other important fundamentals to assess. I suggest you continue to research dotDigital Group to get a better picture of the company by looking at:

  1. Valuation: What is DOTD worth today? Is the stock undervalued, even when its growth outlook is factored into its intrinsic value? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether DOTD is currently mispriced by the market.
  2. Management Team: An experienced management team on the helm increases our confidence in the business – take a look at who sits on dotDigital Group’s board and the CEO’s back ground.
  3. Other High-Performing Stocks: If you believe you should cushion your portfolio with something less risky, scroll through our free list of these great stocks here.

To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.

The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.