U.S. Markets open in 4 hrs 26 mins
  • S&P Futures

    4,297.75
    -10.00 (-0.23%)
     
  • Dow Futures

    34,065.00
    -53.00 (-0.16%)
     
  • Nasdaq Futures

    13,603.50
    -54.75 (-0.40%)
     
  • Russell 2000 Futures

    2,019.50
    -3.80 (-0.19%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    86.64
    +0.11 (+0.13%)
     
  • Gold

    1,788.70
    -1.00 (-0.06%)
     
  • Silver

    20.00
    -0.09 (-0.45%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.0168
    -0.0003 (-0.0305%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    2.8240
    0.0000 (0.00%)
     
  • Vix

    19.82
    -0.13 (-0.65%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.2096
    +0.0001 (+0.0109%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    134.8020
    +0.5870 (+0.4374%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    23,815.87
    -191.88 (-0.80%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    567.80
    -4.11 (-0.72%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,540.93
    +4.87 (+0.06%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    29,222.77
    +353.86 (+1.23%)
     

Is There An Opportunity With Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.'s (NYSE:BR) 32% Undervaluation?

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·5 min read
In this article:
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. (NYSE:BR) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Broadridge Financial Solutions

What's the estimated valuation?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$495.8m

US$847.6m

US$950.0m

US$1.14b

US$1.25b

US$1.33b

US$1.39b

US$1.45b

US$1.50b

US$1.55b

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x4

Analyst x4

Analyst x3

Analyst x2

Analyst x2

Est @ 6.44%

Est @ 5.08%

Est @ 4.13%

Est @ 3.47%

Est @ 3.01%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7%

US$464

US$744

US$781

US$877

US$899

US$897

US$883

US$861

US$835

US$806

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$8.0b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.5b× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (6.7%– 1.9%) = US$33b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$33b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= US$17b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$25b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$145, the company appears quite good value at a 32% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
dcf

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Broadridge Financial Solutions as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.138. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Broadridge Financial Solutions, we've put together three relevant aspects you should look at:

  1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for Broadridge Financial Solutions we've flagged before making an investment in the company.

  2. Future Earnings: How does BR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.