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Is Orange (EPA:ORA) A Risky Investment?

Simply Wall St

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Orange S.A. (EPA:ORA) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Orange

What Is Orange's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2019 Orange had €37.1b of debt, an increase on €34.1b, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of €8.82b, its net debt is less, at about €28.3b.

ENXTPA:ORA Historical Debt, August 22nd 2019

A Look At Orange's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Orange had liabilities of €29.1b due within 12 months and liabilities of €42.0b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of €8.82b and €10.8b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €51.5b.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's massive market capitalization of €35.9b, we think shareholders really should watch Orange's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Orange's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 2.4 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 3.8 times last year. It seems that the business incurs large depreciation and amortisation charges, so maybe its debt load is heavier than it would first appear, since EBITDA is arguably a generous measure of earnings. Unfortunately, Orange saw its EBIT slide 8.9% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Orange can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Orange's free cash flow amounted to 32% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Mulling over Orange's attempt at staying on top of its total liabilities, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least its net debt to EBITDA is not so bad. Overall, it seems to us that Orange's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. Given Orange has a strong balance sheet is profitable and pays a dividend, it would be good to know how fast its dividends are growing, if at all. You can find out instantly by clicking this link.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.