The E-mini S&P 500 [SPH14:CME] reached new highs after the bounce at 1732. Is 1900 next? It’s 1900 or bust.
New Highs Reached
In my Feb. 11 edition of the Opening Print (E-mini S&P 500: Rally off 1730) I wrote: “The bulls will need to reclaim the 1806.75 key level in order to begin triggering upside buy stops…Overall, the fact that the ES held the 1730 key level is bullish, and again this points to new highs ahead, likely toward 1900 by April.”
The market knew the bulls meant business when they took the ES bid through the 1806.75 key level, and then turned it into support in mid-February. This exchange of directional bias triggered upside buy stops, which eventually led price to a new all-time high at 1866. While we saw the 1730 level coming as support, the reversal off this zone has been incredible.
As a matter of fact, price remains on course to reach our 1900 level by April, with a current primary monthly bull target at 1908, and an ABCD measured move target at 1944.75, which has a May/June timeframe target.
But is the bus now too full?
1830 Is The Pivot
The ES pushed to a new all-time high at 1866, but has not been able to gain acceptance above 1856 since Feb. 28. If the bulls reclaim 1856, look for upside buy stops to trigger a move into the primary and secondary weekly bull targets at 1861.75 and 1871.75, respectively.
But is the bus too full? Maybe so, but only in the short term. If price cannot rise beyond 1856, we could see a retest of support between 1830 and 1832, which is a support zone that has held firmly over the last week of trading. A failure to hold above 1830 implies a sell-off into a 1806.75 to 1811.75, which is a support zone with significant confluence and should be considered a swing buy zone for a shot at new highs if tested. If this support zone goes offered, you’ll likely see some deep selling into 1748.50 to 1755.
From this vantage point, it’s 1900 or bust. Overall, as long as price remains above 1730, the ES continues on a path to 1944.75 by June.