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A Packed Economic Calendar Puts the EUR and USD in the Spotlight

Bob Mason
Economic data out of Japan spells more trouble, with a particularly busy economic calendar placing focus on the EUR and USD.

Earlier in the Day:

Economic data released through the Asian session this morning included January employment figures out of Australia and prelim February manufacturing PMI numbers out of Japan.

For the Aussie Dollar,

According to the figures released by the ABS,

  • The number of employed rose by 39.1k in January, coming in ahead of a forecasted 15.2k increase, following December’s 21.6k rise.
  • Full employment surged by 65.4k in the month, following a 3.0k decrease in December.
  • The unemployment rate held steady at 5.0% in January, while the participation rate rose from 65.6% to 65.7%.
  • Part-time employment declined by 26.3k, reversing a 24.6k increase in December.
  • Since January 2018, full-time employment increased by 236.1k, while part-time employment has risen by just 35.2k.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71650 to $0.72038 upon release of the minutes. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar stood at $0.7161, down by 0.06% for the session.

For the Japanese Yen,

Japan’s manufacturing sector hit the brakes in February, according to February’s prelim Manufacturing PMI.

The manufacturing PMI slid from 50.3 to a 32-month low 48.5. Looking at the components of the PMI,

New orders decreased at a faster pace, with output also falling at a faster pace in February. While new export orders decreased at a slower pace, Japan’s latest trade figures and the slide in demand from China suggests that there may be more trouble ahead. The U.S administration could make things a little more challenging should tariffs be rolled out on autos.

The Japanese Yen moved from ¥110.720 to ¥110.719 against the Dollar upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen stood at ¥110.78, up 0.06% for the session.

Elsewhere,

At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.21% to $0.6849. The losses come in spite of the risk-on sentiment through the early part of the day, U.S Dollar strength off the back of the FOMC meeting minutes release on Wednesday, weighed early on.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats scheduled for release include prelim February private-sector PMI numbers out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone and finalized inflation numbers out of France, Germany, and Italy.

On the data front, EUR sensitivity to the manufacturing numbers will be heightened as economic indicators across major markets raise more red flags.

Outside of the numbers, the ECB’s monetary policy meeting minutes will also be released later in the day that will likely be in stark contrast to the FED’s outlook on growth. While the minutes will be a reminder of the ECB’s dovish outlook on growth, updates from ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S and China would likely limit any downside from the ECB’s dovishness.

At the time of writing, the EUR up by 0.11% at $1.1350.

For the Pound

There are no material stats scheduled for release through the day. Brexit will remain the area of focus as British Prime Minister Theresa May looks to resolve the backstop issue that has become the bone of contention on both sides of La Manche.

The clock is ticking and pressure on the Pound could begin to build should there be a lack of progress.

At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.03% at $1.3046.

Across the Pond

It’s a busy day ahead for the Greenback. Key stats scheduled for release include December durable goods orders, February private-sector PMI numbers for Philly and the U.S, the weekly jobless claims figures and January existing home sales numbers.

Following a relatively upbeat outlook on U.S economic growth, in spite of a string of softer numbers out of the U.S of late, today’s figures will provide more evidence on where the economy is heading. There will be nowhere for the Dollar to hide this afternoon, with all of the data expected to have an impact.

We would expect the Durable goods orders, Philly Fed Manufacturing PMI, the prelim service sector PMI and the weekly jobless claims figures to have the greatest impact, however.

Outside of the numbers, FOMC member Bostic is scheduled to speak, who will unlikely have too much influence with the slew of data due out shortly after.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up 0.02% to 96.472, with today’s stats and Trump to provide direction through the day.

For the Loonie

Economic data scheduled for release is limited to December wholesale sales figures this afternoon. While we can expect the Loonie to respond to the data, forecasted to be Loonie positive, risk sentiment and impact on crude oil prices will likely be of greater influence through the day.

Outside of the data, Bank of Canada Poloz is scheduled to speak later in the day. Any monetary policy chatter could pin back the Loonie, the BoC having recently joined the doves on the policy front.

The Loonie was up by 0.906% to C$1.3168, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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