Investing in stocks inevitably means buying into some companies that perform poorly. But the long term shareholders of Aurora Mobile Limited (NASDAQ:JG) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. Sadly for them, the share price is down 61% in that time.
Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.
Aurora Mobile wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last three years Aurora Mobile saw its revenue shrink by 39% per year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. Arguably, the market has responded appropriately to this business performance by sending the share price down 17% (annualized) in the same time period. Bagholders or 'baggies' are people who buy more of a stock as the price collapses. They are then left 'holding the bag' if the shares turn out to be worthless. It could be a while before the company repays long suffering shareholders with share price gains.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
A Different Perspective
Aurora Mobile shareholders are down 15% for the year, falling short of the market return. Meanwhile, the broader market slid about 14%, likely weighing on the stock. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 17% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last three years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Aurora Mobile is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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