The art and science of stock market investing requires a tolerance for losing money on some of the shares you buy. But serious investors should think long and hard about avoiding extreme losses. So we hope that those who held Wejo Group Limited (NASDAQ:WEJO) during the last year don't lose the lesson, in addition to the 87% hit to the value of their shares. While some investors are willing to stomach this sort of loss, they are usually professionals who spread their bets thinly. Wejo Group may have better days ahead, of course; we've only looked at a one year period. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 30% in the last 90 days. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
Wejo Group wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
In the last twelve months, Wejo Group increased its revenue by 135%. That's a strong result which is better than most other loss making companies. So on the face of it we're really surprised to see the share price down 87% over twelve months. Something weird is definitely impacting the stock price; we'd venture the company has destroyed value somehow. We'd recommend taking a very close look at the stock (and any available forecasts), before considering a purchase, because the share price is not correlated with the revenue growth, that's for sure. Of course, investors do over-react when they are stressed out, so the sell-off could be unjustifiably severe.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Wejo Group
A Different Perspective
We doubt Wejo Group shareholders are happy with the loss of 87% over twelve months. That falls short of the market, which lost 15%. There's no doubt that's a disappointment, but the stock may well have fared better in a stronger market. With the stock down 30% over the last three months, the market doesn't seem to believe that the company has solved all its problems. Given the relatively short history of this stock, we'd remain pretty wary until we see some strong business performance. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Wejo Group (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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