Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that Pembina Pipeline Corporation (TSE:PPL) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does Pembina Pipeline Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2019 Pembina Pipeline had debt of CA$7.81b, up from CA$7.47b in one year. On the flip side, it has CA$328.0m in cash leading to net debt of about CA$7.48b.
A Look At Pembina Pipeline's Liabilities
The latest balance sheet data shows that Pembina Pipeline had liabilities of CA$1.43b due within a year, and liabilities of CA$11.4b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of CA$328.0m and CA$534.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CA$12.0b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit isn't so bad because Pembina Pipeline is worth a massive CA$25.2b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Pembina Pipeline's debt is 3.5 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 6.0 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. Also relevant is that Pembina Pipeline has grown its EBIT by a very respectable 27% in the last year, thus enhancing its ability to pay down debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Pembina Pipeline's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, Pembina Pipeline created free cash flow amounting to 14% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
On our analysis Pembina Pipeline's EBIT growth rate should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow makes us a little nervous about its debt. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Pembina Pipeline's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. We'd be motivated to research the stock further if we found out that Pembina Pipeline insiders have bought shares recently. If you would too, then you're in luck, since today we're sharing our list of reported insider transactions for free.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.