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PennyMac Mortgage (PMT) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

Zacks Equity Research

Have you been paying attention to shares of PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (PMT)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 2.4% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $21.91 in the previous session. PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust has gained 17.2% since the start of the year compared to the 14.4% move for the Zacks Finance sector and the 22.1% return for the Zacks Real Estate - Operations industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on May 2, 2019, PennyMac Mortgage reported EPS of $0.68 versus consensus estimate of $0.42 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 19.66%.

For the current fiscal year, PennyMac Mortgage is expected to post earnings of $1.8 per share on $380.37 million in revenues. This represents a -9.55% change in EPS on an 8.35% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $1.97 per share on $406 million in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 9.31% and 6.74%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

PennyMac Mortgage may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

PennyMac Mortgage has a Value Score of A. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are C and A, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 12.1X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 9.3X versus its peer group's average of 11.6X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 2.42. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, PennyMac Mortgage currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if PennyMac Mortgage meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though PennyMac Mortgage shares could still be poised for more gains ahead.

How Does PennyMac Mortgage Stack Up to the Competition?

Shares of PennyMac Mortgage have been rising, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? Some of its industry peers are also looking good, including HFF (HF), CBRE Group (CBRE), and Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), all of which currently have a Zacks Rank of at least #2 and a VGM Score of at least B, making them well-rounded choices.

The Zacks Industry Rank is in the top 25% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for PennyMac Mortgage, even beyond its own solid fundamental situation.


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