People Start Living Alone Later – and Rising College Attendance Is Not the Cause
In 1980, most adults from age 23 onwards lived independently, without family or roommates. By 2017, this tipping point age had increased to 26.
Rising rates of college attendance don't explain this delay: People with a high school education level are less likely to live independently at every age and by a margin of about 12 percentage points by age 30.
People in more expensive places take longer to live independently, and this gap has widened over time.
Moving into your own place is an important life milestone for many people, marking financial independence, personal success, and the beginning of mature adulthood. But today's young adults are taking longer than previous generations to strike out on their own, especially in the nation's most economically dynamic and most expensive places.
In broad strokes, there's a cycle to the type of household in which people live over the course of their lives. In childhood and teenage years, the vast majority of people live with at least one parent. At age 18, even as some go off to college and others start full-time work, it's not unusual for some young people to continue living with Mom and Dad. For those who do move out, sharing a home with roommates is a common way to save on living expenses.
Eventually, though, most people form their own households separate from their parents and without roommates. This analysis examines at what age the share of adults living independently[1] first tips over 50%, i.e. at what age most people begin living independently. It also examines how that tipping point has changed over time, and how it varies across the nation's major housing markets.[2]
It Takes Longer to Live Independently, and Fewer People Are
In 1980, the tipping point age was 23: 49% of 22-year-olds and 58% of 23-year-olds lived independently, so 23 was the age at which it became more common than not for someone to have their own place. By 2017, the most recent year for which data are available, this tipping point had increased to age 26. The following figure illustrates this shift: it plots the difference between the share of adults who had their own place and the share of those who didn't. The age at which this measure first becomes positive is the age at which most adults first live independently what we're calling the tipping point age.
And this shift isn't just a delay for 20- and 30-somethings: a smaller share of adults of every age lived independently in 2017 than in 1980. In other words, it's not just that it takes longer for people to get their own place today, but also that fewer people ever do. The share of 40-year-olds who live independently was ten percentage points lower in 2017 (81%) than in 1980 (91%).
A Delay Not Explained by Rising College Attendance
Today's young people pursue higher education at higher rates than previous generations, which typically delays when people start full-time work and when they marry and have children. Moreover, high levels of student debt could mean that it takes longer for people to afford their own place.
But the data tell a more complicated story. Although people with a high school education level used to live independently at roughly similar rates to their college-educated counterparts, they now are less likely to do so by a margin of about 12 percentage points by age 30. Notably, adults without a college degree used to live independently at higher rates than similarly-aged college graduates almost up to age 30, which isn't surprising given their additional years of earnings. Today, even that temporary advantage has been lost despite having spent more years in college rather than working, college graduates are more likely to have their own place as early as 26.
The Gap Between Markets has Widened
Not surprisingly, it takes longer for young adults in more expensive places to live on their own. More than half of adults living outside of metropolitan areas have their own place by age 25, whereas their counterparts inside metro areas wait two more years, until age 27. Among the nation's largest metros, this same pattern holds: the tipping point age is 24 in relatively affordable markets like Cincinnati and Indianapolis, but it's 29 in pricey coastal metros like Los Angeles and Miami.
In 1980, the typical age at which a majority of people first lived independently was between 22 and 24 in most metro areas even expensive ones. By 2017, both expensive and less-expensive metros had seen their median tipping point age move up, by about four years in the former compared with only two years for the latter.
A similar pattern reveals itself in how both home price increases and the tipping point age have changed over time. Broadly, the markets that saw the greatest home price appreciation between 1980 and 2017 are also those that saw the largest increases in tipping point age. New York and Los Angeles, along with many of the nation's other large expensive coastal metros, are perfect examples. In 1980, more than half of 24-year-olds living in each market had their own place, but by 2017, that age had increased to 29.
However, there are some intriguing outliers as well: not all metros whose housing markets have boomed over the last several decades have seen the age at which young adults live independently increase to the same degree. For example, Seattle, San Diego, New York City, and Boston all saw home values more than quadruple since 1980, but Seattle experienced a notably smaller increase in the age at which most people have their own place than these other metros. By contrast, Dallas's home values haven't even doubled, yet the tipping point age increased by four years the same as San Francisco.
What Might be Driving This?
There is a range of cultural and economic reasons why people might be delaying moving out on their own or never doing so at all.
First, social norms about whether and when to get married and have children have changed, so delaying settling down or choosing not to is more socially acceptable.
Rising income inequality likely also contributed to this shift. Most Americans have seen their wages grow only sluggishly over the last several decades, lagging behind other living costs. That's especially true for millennials who don't have a college degree, who earn less than previous generations did at the same age. Today's young people are also more likely to live in urban cores, where housing is more expensive. Moreover, recent research suggests that the wage premium for working in a major metro, where costs of living are higher, has substantially shrunk or disappeared for all but the highest-paying occupations.
Combined with skyrocketing home price appreciation in some of the nation's most dynamic metros, these changes in incomes could explain why young people are taking longer to move out on their own. Put more simply, if rents and home prices are going up and paychecks aren't, people just can't afford their own place.
In this sense, the shift can be seen as a symptom of the affordability crisis afflicting some of the nation's most dynamic metros. These metros have been successful in no small part because they have offered upward economic mobility to young people and not just the highly educated "creative class." If young people in these metros are delaying living independently by choice, this change may not be cause for concern. But if housing has grown so expensive that young and not-so-young adults making modest incomes must sacrifice their independence to live there, these metros may have difficulty retaining key sections of their workforce like teachers and nurses. That's a problem that would affect everyone, not just the millennials living in their parents' basements or the 30-year-old who still has roommates.
[1] Living independently characterizes the following household types: householders living alone, or with relatives by blood, marriage, or adoption, or with unmarried partners. Adults aged 19 or older still living with their parents and households that include unrelated roommates and non-family households are defined as not living alone. One might not consider living with a romantic partner to count as "living alone" if high housing costs push couples to move in together sooner than they otherwise might, but the data do not allow such cases to be identified.
[2] This brief looks at trends across U.S. metropolitan statistical areas, which are defined by the federal Office of Management and Budget based on county-level commuting patterns. As metros grow and shrink, these definitions change over time, so the geographic area included in a metro may not be consistent but will cover a cohesive regional market for labor and housing. This analysis applies 1980 metropolitan area definitions with 1980 survey data, 1990 definitions with 1990 survey data, and 2013 definitions from 2000 forward. Metros were matched over using the first city in the metropolitan area name as well as the first associated state name.
The post People Start Living Alone Later and Rising College Attendance Is Not the Cause appeared first on Zillow Research.
