Last week, you might have seen that Per Aarsleff Holding A/S (CPH:PAAL B) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.9% to ø216 in the past week. Per Aarsleff Holding reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of ø13b and statutory earnings per share of ø17.69, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what analysts' statutory forecasts suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Per Aarsleff Holding from dual analysts is for revenues of ø13.8b in 2020, which is a modest 2.6% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to jump 25% to ø22.14. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of ø14.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of ø22.98 in 2020. It's pretty clear that analyst sentiment has fallen after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.
Analysts made no major changes to their price target of ø275, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Per Aarsleff Holding's valuation.
Another way to assess these estimates is by comparing them to past performance, and seeing whether analysts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the market. We would highlight that Per Aarsleff Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 2.6% increase next year well below the historical 7.6%p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the other companies in this market with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Per Aarsleff Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern with the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Per Aarsleff Holding. Lamentably, they also downgraded their sales forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the market itself. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have analyst estimates for Per Aarsleff Holding going out as far as 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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