U.S. Markets closed
  • S&P 500

    3,621.63
    -16.72 (-0.46%)
     
  • Dow 30

    29,638.64
    -271.73 (-0.91%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    12,198.74
    -7.11 (-0.06%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    1,819.82
    -35.45 (-1.91%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    45.25
    -0.09 (-0.20%)
     
  • Gold

    1,776.50
    +0.80 (+0.05%)
     
  • Silver

    22.72
    +0.13 (+0.56%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1947
    +0.0013 (+0.1075%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    0.8440
    +0.0020 (+0.24%)
     
  • Vix

    20.57
    -0.27 (-1.30%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.3344
    +0.0012 (+0.0907%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    104.2850
    -0.0390 (-0.0374%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    19,541.38
    -71.35 (-0.36%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    383.44
    +18.84 (+5.17%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    6,266.19
    -101.39 (-1.59%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    26,651.70
    +218.08 (+0.83%)
     

Pfizer's COVID-19 Vaccine Candidate Primed For $3.5B In 2021 Sales: Analyst

Shanthi Rexaline
·2 min read

The mRNA coronavirus vaccine in development by Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE – ADR (NASDAQ: BNTX) is poised for an emergency use authorization application, according to SVB Leerink. 

The Pfizer Analyst: Geoffrey Porges has a Market Perform rating on Pfizer shares.

The Pfizer Thesis: Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine candidate BNT162b2 will likely report interim efficacy results within the next few weeks and then advance to an emergency use filing, Porges said in a note.

BNT162b2 has a high likelihood of achieving its efficacy and safety outcomes and advancing to at least initial emergency approval in November, the analyst said.

"We believe there is a high probability of BNT162b2 being granted an EUA for high risk populations in the fourth quarter." 

Related Link: The Week Ahead In Biotech: Spectrum Pharma FDA Decision, Biogen And Abbott Earnings, Cancer Conference

SVB Leerink's vaccine market model assumes permanent risk from SARS-CoV-2, necessitating re-vaccination every two years to maintain protective immunity, Porges said. 

Relatively high vaccine penetration to the tune of 80% is likely in health care workers and high-risk adults such as the elderly and those with comorbidities, and low penetration is foreseen for low-risk adults and ultimately children, the analyst said.

"We also forecast an initial large bolus of vaccination in 2021-2022E given the size of the COVID naïve population, followed by a stable re-vaccination trend into 2030Es," he said. 

Porges expects two initial doses for priming immunization, and then a single booster every two years.

Given Pfizer's lead position in clinical development, strong immunogenicity data and seemingly clean safety profile, BNT162b2 is expected to take more than 50% of the market share initially, which would decrease over time to 25% as more products enter the market place, the analyst said.

Pfizer's vaccine is expected to be priced at $30 per dose in the U.S. and $23 in regions outside of the U.S. initially, with the price falling to $11-$15 per dose over time, he said. 

Incorporating BNT162b2 in SVB Leerink's Pfizer model with an 80% probability of success, Porges said he expects it to generate $3.54 billion in sales in 2021 and $1.57 billion in 2024.

PFE Price Action: Pfizer shares were down 0.56% at $37.28 at last check Wednesday. 

Related Link: FDA's COVID-19 Vaccine Guidance Shows 'Substantial' Obligations For Developers: Analyst

Latest Ratings for PFE

Date

Firm

Action

From

To

Oct 2020

Atlantic Equities

Downgrades

Overweight

Neutral

Sep 2020

Berenberg

Initiates Coverage On

Hold

Jul 2020

Morgan Stanley

Maintains

Equal-Weight

View More Analyst Ratings for PFE
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

See more from Benzinga

© 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.